United States News & Analysis

The demise of NAFTA illustrates once again how the force of commerce cannot transcend the political.

The US Navy is seeing ever more frequent and intensive engagements, but domestic shipbuilding bottlenecks impose hard limits on its operational reach.

The Iran war has highlighted the difference between projecting power and producing trust.

Taking a deep dive into the Iran war memorandum of understanding – an agreement as delicate as it is consequential for the future of American power in the Middle East.

The Iran war has revealed both the enduring military predominance of the US and the limits of that power in shaping political outcomes.

States are over-securitizing inputs and under-governing outputs, leaving the most consequential domains of AI power largely unregulated and open to capture.

Since the outbreak of the war, Ukraine has assembled the most combat-tested air defense network in the world, drawing important lessons for future conflicts.

Copper is a key input for the data centers fueling the AI boom, and copper supply chains are riddled with geopolitical and capital risks. Strong investment will be needed to get ahead of the coming copper squeeze, and the clock is already ticking.

The debacle surrounding the launch of Fable by Anthropic is only the tip of the iceberg of dual-use AI. If effective safeguards are not established, the AI arms race ensures that dangerous models will fall into the hands of bad actors.

Washington and Tehran agree on a memorandum of understanding, but the Iran war is far from over; Europeans are souring on trans-Atlantic relations just as the Trump administration rotates military assets away from the continent; and Ukraine’s FP-5 Flamingo has scored an early operational success deep within Russia.

For Washington, Iran’s “Hormuz Safe” scheme is a dangerous proposition, demonstrating that a sanctioned state can build its own maritime financial infrastructure, bypassing Lloyd's, the dollar, and US sanctions simultaneously.

The risk faced by the United States in the Strait of Hormuz mirrors Israel’s War of Attrition against Egypt: What presents as a contained skirmish may actually be setting the stage for a future regional war.

Russia has re-invented its long-range strike capabilities over the course of the Ukraine war, moving from import dependency and exhausted stockpiles to a domestic production capacity that is now eclipsing NATO.

A US terrorist designation of two major Brazilian organized crime outfits is not a matter of law enforcement - it’s a geopolitical weapon, speak nothing of a compliance nightmare for regional banks, and it will reverberate across US-Brazilian relations for years to come.

The World Cup has afforded space for Mexico’s President Sheinbaum to play a constructive role in defusing Middle East tensions, but asymmetric realities will make it hard to repeat the trick on Cuba or the cartels.