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Backgrounder: Brazil Elections 2018

Sessão Extraordinária Plenário Ulysses Guimarães Dep. Jair Bolsonaro Foto: Beto Oliveira 30.06.2011 - https://www.camara.leg.br/internet/bancoimagem/banco/2011/06/2011063018359_20110630_018LP_LC.jpg - modified - Beto Oliveira / Câmara dos Deputados

With a divided presidential field, anything can happen in Brazil’s upcoming presidential elections – and that’s what has investors worried.

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Global Forecast (9-25-2018)

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Sweden’s far-right might sneak into the Riksdag via the back door, Brexit gut-check time in the United Kingdom, and new hope for US-Turkey relations.

Vietnam Ready for a Seat at the UN Security Council

UN_security_council, cc Bernd Untiedt, Germany, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UN_security_council_2005.jpg

Vietnam’s commitment to global institutions and poverty alleviation make it a good candidate for a rotating seat at the UN Security Council.

FLASH: OPEC Goes Rogue on Trump, Keeps Production Steady

Oil_platform_P-51_(Brazil), cc Divulgação Petrobras / ABr, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_platform_P-51_(Brazil).jpg

President Trump’s cozy relationship with Saudi Arabia failed to translate into a production hike from OPEC+ over the weekend.

China-India Relations: A Pearl Is Unstrung in the Maldives

Ibrahim_Mohamed_Solih_-_Maldives2, cc Wikicommons, modified, Asimoosa, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ibrahim_Mohamed_Solih_-_Maldives2.jpg

Opposition politician Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has won the Maldives’ general election, putting China’s latest foray into India’s backyard in jeopardy.

Emerging Markets: Turkey Shifts to Austerity, But Will It Be Enough?

ErdoganKrem, cc Kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55011

Finance Minister Berat Albayrak unveils a new austerity drive, but the plan does nothing about the mountain of toxic debt in Turkey’s private sector.

EU Salzburg Summit Sinks May’s Latest Brexit Plan

May, cc Flcikr PRO EU2017EE Estonian Presidency, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

The demise of Prime Minister May’s Chequers plan increases the odds of a hard Brexit.

Djibouti’s Attempts to Vanquish Dubai Ports Operator Spells Trouble for Washington

180327-N-TK936-6957 PORT OF DJIBOUTI, Djibouti (March 27, 2018) Members of Task Group (TG) 68.6 sets a security screening zone on the Henry J. Kaiser-class fleet replenishment oiler USNS John Lenthall (T-AO 189) while operating in the Horn of Africa, March 27, 2018. TG 68.6 is forward-deployed to the U.S. 6th Fleet area of operations and conducts joint and naval operations, often in concert with allied and interagency partners, in order to advance U.S. national interests and security and stability in Eu-rope and Africa. (U.S. Navy photo by Master at Arms 2nd Class Theresa Mullis/Released), cc Flickr modified, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa/U.S. 6th Fleet

If Doraleh port goes the way of Hambantota in Sri Lanka and is ceded to China for non-payment of debt, the United States sprawling Camp Lemonnier could be rendered militarily unviable.

The Geopolitics of the Black Sea

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Long the site of great power competition, the Black Sea region appears to be heating up once again.

Trump Ramps up Pressure in US-China Trade War

XiKre, cc Kremlin.ru, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56046

President Trump has slapped $200 billion in new tariffs on Chinese goods, with new retaliations from Beijing sure to follow.

The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Change in Vietnam

SubmergedTree in Laos, cc Basile Morin, modified, 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Submerged_tree_under_a_dark_and_cloudy_sky_in_Si_Phan_Don.jpg

As a country that’s particularly susceptible to climate change, Vietnam will face a daunting assortment of security, economic, and political challenges in the decades to come.

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