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Emerging Markets: Turkey Shifts to Austerity, But Will It Be Enough?

ErdoganKrem, cc Kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55011

Finance Minister Berat Albayrak unveils a new austerity drive, but the plan does nothing about the mountain of toxic debt in Turkey’s private sector.

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EU Salzburg Summit Sinks May’s Latest Brexit Plan

May, cc Flcikr PRO EU2017EE Estonian Presidency, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

The demise of Prime Minister May’s Chequers plan increases the odds of a hard Brexit.

Djibouti’s Attempts to Vanquish Dubai Ports Operator Spells Trouble for Washington

180327-N-TK936-6957 PORT OF DJIBOUTI, Djibouti (March 27, 2018) Members of Task Group (TG) 68.6 sets a security screening zone on the Henry J. Kaiser-class fleet replenishment oiler USNS John Lenthall (T-AO 189) while operating in the Horn of Africa, March 27, 2018. TG 68.6 is forward-deployed to the U.S. 6th Fleet area of operations and conducts joint and naval operations, often in concert with allied and interagency partners, in order to advance U.S. national interests and security and stability in Eu-rope and Africa. (U.S. Navy photo by Master at Arms 2nd Class Theresa Mullis/Released), cc Flickr modified, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa/U.S. 6th Fleet

If Doraleh port goes the way of Hambantota in Sri Lanka and is ceded to China for non-payment of debt, the United States sprawling Camp Lemonnier could be rendered militarily unviable.

The Geopolitics of the Black Sea

BlackSeaRegion-Final

Long the site of great power competition, the Black Sea region appears to be heating up once again.

Trump Ramps up Pressure in US-China Trade War

XiKre, cc Kremlin.ru, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56046

President Trump has slapped $200 billion in new tariffs on Chinese goods, with new retaliations from Beijing sure to follow.

The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Change in Vietnam

SubmergedTree in Laos, cc Basile Morin, modified, 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Submerged_tree_under_a_dark_and_cloudy_sky_in_Si_Phan_Don.jpg

As a country that’s particularly susceptible to climate change, Vietnam will face a daunting assortment of security, economic, and political challenges in the decades to come.

JNIM: The New Terrorist Threat from the Sahel

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You may not have heard of JNIM, but you will soon. The group is inflaming local ethnic conflicts, killing peacekeepers, and pushing a vulnerable region closer to anarchy.

Scott Walker to Face the Music in US Midterms?

WalkerCPAC, cc Flickr Gage Skidmore, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Scott Walker is one of the many old guard Republicans facing a credible challenge in November, and it could be the oft-ignored issue of education that ends up unseating him.

Bulgaria’s Soviet Jets: Trojan Horses in a NATO Air Force?

MIG29Airshow, cc Flickr Airwolfhound, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

With Bulgaria clearly of two minds on its alignment and Moscow willing to be generous, the US should strongly consider loosening its purse strings.

FLASH: Turkey Central Bank Raises Interest Rates to Stem Lira Collapse

5000_TL_obverse, Central Bank of Turkey, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:5000_TL_obverse.jpg, public domain

Is Turkey’s central bank truly independent, or has the “enemy of interest rates” finally relented?

Backgrounder: Brazil Elections 2018

Sessão Extraordinária Plenário Ulysses Guimarães Dep. Jair Bolsonaro Foto: Beto Oliveira 30.06.2011 - https://www.camara.leg.br/internet/bancoimagem/banco/2011/06/2011063018359_20110630_018LP_LC.jpg - modified - Beto Oliveira / Câmara dos Deputados

With a divided presidential field, anything can happen in Brazil’s upcoming presidential elections – and that’s what has investors worried.

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