The long-awaited breakdown of the Russian war economy may be finally at hand, albeit too late for the outgoing Biden administration to take diplomatic advantage of it.

Fearing secondary sanctions, Chinese banks are limiting their involvement with sanctioned Russian businesses. The resulting liquidity crunch is creating new inflationary pressures for the Russian economy.

The Russian economy has proven far more resilient than Western planners assumed, but strong headwinds loom in the near future.

The Russian economy, supported by its energy sector, has successfully weathered the brunt of Western sanctions so far. But this resilience is predicated on China’s unwavering support and pre-war reserves, both of which are finite.

The Russian economy has proven far more resilient than many predicted at the onset of the Ukraine war. But there’s a limit to how long Moscow can spend beyond its means.

Bolstered by illicit and licit trade flows, the Russian economy appears to be weathering the sanction storm amid the Ukraine war.

Macroeconomic indicators can be deceptive when assessing the ongoing impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy.