Forecasts

Global Forecast (10-18-2022)

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Russia shifts its tactics in Ukraine, China delays a key economic data release, and US-Saudi ties continue to deteriorate.

Energy and Food Insecurity Will Outlive the Ukraine War

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Fallout from the Ukraine war is just one of many factors fueling energy and food insecurity, both of which are likely to linger long after the conflict is over.

Outlook 2022: Oil Markets

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News of oil’s death may well be premature.

Global Forecast (1-10-2022)

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No ‘second-class’ members in NATO, CSTO troops sent to Kazakhstan, and inflation shows no signs of fading in the euro zone.

Outlook 2022: A Russian Invasion of Ukraine?

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2022 is projecting to be a year when something gives in the Ukraine civil war, one way or another.

Outlook 2022: China’s Economy

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Beijing is facing a confluence of several economic crises in the year ahead. Will it stay its recent course of economic rebalancing, or revert to old policy playbooks?

Outlook 2022: COVID-19 & Global Debt

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An omicron-fueled global resurgence of COVID-19 is a threat to stretched balance sheets around the world, and the risk is particularly pronounced in developing countries.

Global Forecast (12-20-2021)

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Russia gives NATO a list of security demands, omicron continues to spread around the world, Addis Ababa celebrates a victory in the Ethiopian civil war, and Chile votes in a polarizing presidential run-off.

Global Forecast (12-13-2021)

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A decisive Fed meeting, NATO-Russia hold talks to deescalate Ukraine tensions, and drones turning the tide in the Ethiopia civil war.

Global Forecast (12-6-2021)

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Ugandan army enters the DRC, a big week for US inflation data, Evergrande inches closer to restructuring, and Didi Chuxing becomes the standard-bearer for US-China decoupling.

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