Forecasts

Outlook 2022: Oil Markets

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News of oil’s death may well be premature.

Global Forecast (1-10-2022)

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No ‘second-class’ members in NATO, CSTO troops sent to Kazakhstan, and inflation shows no signs of fading in the euro zone.

Outlook 2022: A Russian Invasion of Ukraine?

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2022 is projecting to be a year when something gives in the Ukraine civil war, one way or another.

Outlook 2022: China’s Economy

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Beijing is facing a confluence of several economic crises in the year ahead. Will it stay its recent course of economic rebalancing, or revert to old policy playbooks?

Outlook 2022: COVID-19 & Global Debt

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An omicron-fueled global resurgence of COVID-19 is a threat to stretched balance sheets around the world, and the risk is particularly pronounced in developing countries.

Global Forecast (12-20-2021)

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Russia gives NATO a list of security demands, omicron continues to spread around the world, Addis Ababa celebrates a victory in the Ethiopian civil war, and Chile votes in a polarizing presidential run-off.

Global Forecast (12-13-2021)

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A decisive Fed meeting, NATO-Russia hold talks to deescalate Ukraine tensions, and drones turning the tide in the Ethiopia civil war.

Global Forecast (12-6-2021)

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Ugandan army enters the DRC, a big week for US inflation data, Evergrande inches closer to restructuring, and Didi Chuxing becomes the standard-bearer for US-China decoupling.

Global Forecast (11-29-2021)

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Another civilian-military compromise in Sudan, the civil war spills its borders in Ethiopia, omicron roils global markets, and Turkey careens toward a currency crisis.

Global Forecast (10-25-2021)

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A major lapse of the ‘ASEAN way,’ COVID-19 spreads in China , and Evergrande lives to fight another day.

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