Global geopolitical trends we’re tracking this week:
Europe
Russia ratchets up strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure
Faced with a series of battlefield setbacks – the loss of Kharkiv Oblast, mounting pressure in Kherson Oblast, and the high-profile attack on the Kerch Strait bridge – the Kremlin was desperate for a win, any win, as criticism of Russia’s tactical competence began to narrow in on the figure of President Putin.
The Kremlin now has its victory, albeit a particularly brutal one, in the surgical strikes of various critical infrastructure sites across Ukraine, evidently facilitated by Iranian Shahed-136 ‘kamikaze’ drones that were recently sold to Russia. According to President Zelenskiy, the strikes have taken nearly a third of Ukraine’s power stations offline in recent days, leading to widespread disruptions of water and electricity.
This most recent escalation serves two purposes for President Putin. One, it helps defuse criticism at home, particularly from the Yevheny Prigozhin/Wagner clique which has become increasingly bold in its open discussion of the operational deficiencies of the Russian armed forces. Two, infrastructure strikes aimed at demoralizing (and freezing out) the civilian population represent an achievable if nefarious objective amid an otherwise stagnant pace of advance on the ground. Whether or not there’s a diplomatic price to be paid in the blatant targeting of civilian infrastructure remains to be seen. But there are already rumblings of a new air defense package being prepared for Ukraine, and UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has reportedly flown to Washington to discuss how to respond to Iran’s involvement in the conflict.
Asia
China delays release of GDP and other economic data
The official line from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is that the Chinese economy put in an ‘outstanding’ performance over the third quarter; however, we’re just going to have to take their word for it, since it has also emerged that the release of official economic statistics has been delayed until some undetermined point in the future, likely after the ongoing 20th Party Congress has ended.
The sudden pulling of official GDP statistics – numbers whose accuracy is admittedly dubious at the best of times – puts a spotlight on the country’s economic struggles of late. Moreover, it’s fueling fears that China’s recent growth slowdown is worse than previously thought; the consensus economist estimate is hovering at around 3.3 percent, far below the 5.5 percent annual target. Such a dramatic growth shortfall would not be the kind of messaging President Xi is looking for as he sets the stage for an unprecedented third term in office.
