China’s Belt and Road Runs Aground in the Philippines

President Rodrigo Roa Duterte and People’s Republic of China President Xi Jinping shake hands prior to their bilateral meetings at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 20. Photo by King Rodriguez/PPD, cc Philippine government, modified,

Lacking the mega-projects seen in mainland Southeast Asia, Beijing’s infrastructure plans in the Philippines have been noticeably smaller in scale and focused more on local connectivity.

Stakes High as Emerging Markets Await Fed Taper Plans


Capital flight, inflation, and debt shocks are the risks facing emerging markets as the Federal Reserve plots a course out of monetary stimulus.

Sudan: Post-Revolution Political Order under Strain

English: Sudanese soldeirs stand guard around armoured military vehicles as demonstrators continue their protest against the regime near the army headquarters in the Sudanese capital Khartoum, cc Agence France-Presse, modified,

An apparent coup attempt illustrates ongoing challenges faced by the civilian-military transitional order in realizing the promise of Sudan’s 2019 revolution.

Is the Post-COVID Party Over for Iron Ore Prices?


Iron ore prices are now down approximately 57% from their May highs, with the sell-off accelerating heading out of the weekend. At one point on Monday, prices had shed another 11.5% in Singapore trading…

Afghanistan’s Fate Will Be Shaped by Geoeconomics

Operation Enduring Freedom

Three geoeconomic factors will determine the future of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan: opium, natural resources, and regional trade networks.

Global Forecast (9-20-2021)


France withdraws ambassadors over AUKUS, Canada heads to the polls, and the Federal Reserve prepares to show its hand on bond tapering.

Timeline: The Downward Spiral of China-Australia Relations

Prime Minister and Andrew Robb signing the Free Trade Agreement with Chinese President Xi and Minister for Commerce Gao Hucheng., 2014, cc Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade website –, modified 0

Chronicling the events that led to the present low point in China-Australia relations.

Europe’s Energy Crisis Goes from Bad to Worse

cc ruben van eijk, Flickr, modified,

Record-high natural gas prices have European consumers hoping for a mild winter.

Evergrande: China’s Property Goliath Teeters on the Brink

Tianjin Skyline in 2008 cc Flickr Jakob Montrasio,,

What does too-big-to-fail with Chinese characteristics look like? Evergrande could be just that.

Global Forecast (9-13-2021)


Russian elections, a US angle on the Guinean coup, and a financial crisis in Sri Lanka.

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