Syrian Civil War News & Analysis
Syrian Refugee Returns After Assad: Political Imperatives and Humanitarian Realities
Examining Syrian refugee populations in neighboring countries and the European Union, as well as the challenges faced by host governments and the al-Sharaa regime in inducing them to return and help rebuild a country devastated by civil war.
Geopolitics Weekly (Trump and Venezuela, Syria Assassinations, China’s Treasury Dump)
This week we examine Trump’s embrace of the Chavista regime in Venezuela, reports of multiple assassination attempts targeting President al-Shaara in Syria, Beijing’s accelerating efforts to offload US debt, and new indications in Europe and Canada of a fundamental realignment in global defense industries.
Geopolitics Weekly (EU Critical Minerals, Nigeria Attacks, US Syria Withdrawal)
This week we examine warning signs that EU critical minerals policy is falling short in its diversification efforts, ISIS-linked attacks in Nigeria and how they reflect a widening band of Sahel instability, the assassination of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in Libya, winners and losers in a potential US withdrawal from Syria, and an emphatic election win for Sanae Takaichi’s LDP in Japan.
Geopolitics Weekly (Greenland, US-Taiwan Tariff Deal, Syria Offensive)
This week we examine how a rapidly evolving situation in Greenland could remake trans-Atlantic relations, details of the long-awaited US-Taiwan tariff deal, a shock government offensive that changed the map of Syria, and Canada’s efforts to thaw out its relations with China.
Sheikh Maqsoud as a Test Case for Syria’s Unresolved Order
Sheikh Maqsoud, a diverse neighborhood in Aleppo, provides a microcosm for how sectarian conflict and institutional development might play out in Syria.
The Post-Assad Revival of Syrian Jewry
After decades of pogroms, anti-Jewish government policies, and institutionalized antisemitism, new leadership has emerged in Syria that could help restore the Syrian Jewish community – but it won’t be easy.
Washington Is Betting on Syria Again
The new US National Security Strategy is swapping democratic idealism for ‘flexible realism,’ and Syria is well-placed to benefit from the shift.
The Collapse of al-Assad’s Syria, One Year On
From Camp Bucca to the People's Palace in Damascus: How the West created President Julani.
A Federal Syria Is a Recipe for Failure
At a time when the country needs to reconnect its fractured communities, Syria cannot afford a toothless government that rewards militias, corruption, and foreign powers at the expense of the national interest.
Israel’s David’s Corridor: Redrawing the Levant Map
Israel’s ‘David’s Corridor’ project would undermine the Axis of Resistance, secure access to critical resources, and fundamentally reshape the demographic and political realities of the Levant in a way that’s favorable to Israeli strategic interests. But realizing the vision will not be easy.
Liberia Provides Lessons for Syria Reconstruction
Reconstruction, peace and reconciliation, and institution-building will all be necessary for peace and stability to return to Syria. Liberia’s post-war experience offers valuable lessons for each one.
Syria’s Next Chapter: Iran Reshapes its Influence
Iran has invested too much in blood and resources to relinquish its foothold in Syria.
Turkish-Kurdish Conflict at a Turning Point: What’s Next?
The PKK’s unilateral disarmament marks a potential turning point in Kurdish relations with the Turkish state, but challenges remain going forward.
End of the Assad Regime: A Theory Audit
How does the sudden end of the Assad regime measure up against theories on the stability of autocratic rule?
Breeding Grounds of Extremism: How Syria Refugee Camps Fuel Radicalization
There is a risk of history repeating itself as Syria refugee camps incubate a new generation of potential recruits for Islamic State and other extremist outfits.
Post-Assad Syria: What It Means for China
Examining the political, economic, and security impacts of Beijing losing a key ‘strategic partner’ in the Middle East.
The Fall of Assad: Domestic, Regional and Systemic Shockwaves
The fall of Assad in Syria is a monumental geopolitical event, and one that will reverberate on the domestic, regional, and international levels. And whatever the new order that eventually emerges, it will not resemble the Levant of the past.
Boon or Bust? Regional Kurds After the Fall of Assad
Examining the political contexts and linkages between Kurdish movements in Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey – all of which will be impacted by the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.
A Taliban in Syria? Recognition or Marginalization for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) defies any easy comparison to moderate or radical examples of Islamist groups, further complicating the highly consequential matter of future sanction relief.
Assad’s Fall: Another Blow to Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Tehran’s closest ally has fallen in Syria, leaving Iran without its main foothold in the Arab world.
