MENA Region

With Aramco IPO, Riyadh Doubles Down on Economic Diversification

Riyadh skyline, modified, MO, public domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Riyadh_Skyline_New.jpg

But geopolitics could get in the way of MBS’ reform program for the Saudi economy.

Trump Reshuffles the Geopolitical Deck with Syria Pullout

SyriaYPG, cc Flickr Kurdishstruggle, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Protracted guerilla war, rebooted alliances, a resurgent ISIS, and humanitarian tragedy could all be in the cards.

Saudi Arabia Oil Attack a Geopolitical Game-changer in the Middle East

US Department of State, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Deputy_Crown_Prince_Mohammad_Bin_Salman_bin_Abdulaziz_Al-Saud_Participates_in_the_Counter-ISIL_Ministerial_Plenary_Session_-_Flickr_-_U.S._Department_of_State_(cropped).jpg

Riyadh’s evident vulnerability will lead to a search for new regional allies, and Israel is a surprising possible candidate.

Fallout from Saudi Oil Facility Attack

Khurais_Oil_Processing_Facility,_Saudi_Arabia_by_Planet_Labs, cc Planet Labs Inc., modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Khurais_Oil_Processing_Facility,_Saudi_Arabia_by_Planet_Labs.jpg

Appraising the geopolitical and market fallout from the mysterious attack on Saudi oil facilities earlier this month.

What’s Next After Tunisia’s “Populist Wave” Elections?

Tunisia Election, 2011, cc Flickr Freedom House, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Voters may have demanded change, but whether they get it or not is still very much up in the air.

Global Forecast (08-26-2019)

GPM-placeholder-forecast

Italy coalition negotiations come down to the wire, Assad’s Idlib offensive rolls out, and North Korea unleashes its “super-large multiple rocket launcher.”

Turkey & Russia’s Détente Tested in Idlib

Putin Erdogan, cc Kremlin.ru, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58574, modified,

Turkey-Russia cooperation is under strain as the Syrian regime intensifies its attempts to re-take the last major rebel stronghold in the civil war.

Tweets Alone Won’t Save Idlib from Tragedy

Presidents Erdogon and Putin, cc Kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58574

It will take direct and unified intervention, not tweets and condemnation, if the West is to head off a humanitarian catastrophe in Idlib.

Backgrounder: Iran’s Military Strategy in the Persian Gulf

An S-300 anti-aircraft system missile launcher in a Russian military parade. , modified, cc SLonoed, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Side_view_of_a_S-300_launcher.JPG

Iran’s military strategy calls for asymmetric warfare against a much more powerful foe in the United States, with a focus on increasing the military and economic costs of any potential conflict.

Sudan: The MENA Region’s Next Proxy Conflict?

Sudan protests 2019, CC M. Saleh, modified, Wikicommons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&title=Special:Search&redirs=0&search=khartoum+protests&fulltext=Search&fulltext=Advanced+search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns14=1&advanced=1&searchToken=1a26j4o5p9lklfiy2kh8biz98#%2Fmedia%2FFile%3ASudanese_protestors_chanting.jpg

The political dispute in Sudan is fertile ground for wider geopolitical machinations between the Saudi-UAE and Turkey-Qatar blocs. Is Sudan doomed to become the next Syria?

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