Americas
Mounting Risk of State Collapse in Haiti
What Happened
New reporting from the Guardian highlights the mounting civilian toll of unrestrained gang warfare in Haiti, with increasingly well-armed and organized criminal gangs operating in half of the country’s regions. The mounting body count is explored in a recent ACLED report, which warns that: “[recent developments] highlight the limited capacity of security forces to contain gangs on multiple fronts,” with diplomatic and aid efforts moving at a glacial pace that is unlikely to reverse the tide anytime soon.
Why It Matters
This is what a state in collapse looks like: an implacable erosion of presence. First in basic services, then in the exercise of coercive authority.
In addition to the human cost, there is a regional dimension to Haiti’s decline:
- (Another) Failure of the International Community. The latest UN security mission, the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support (MSS), was pulled out of Haiti in April. The MSS was dogged by shortfalls in funding and political will and ultimately proved not up to the task of dislodging gangs from the capital region. It will be replaced by the 5,500-strong US-backed Gang Suppression Force in October, but this new deployment will be asked to engage in the same bloody urban warfare that its predecessor ultimately opted out of. One source of optimism is the possibility that wider drone use may alter the balance of tactics in favor of the state. Private military contractors in the capital have already met with some tactical if not humanitarian success here. But the asymmetry of UAV technology cuts two ways and there’s no reason to believe that gangs won’t be fielding their own kamikaze drones given enough time.
