South America Politics News & Analysis

Latin America’s Blue Tide Sweeps through Colombia | Geopolitics Weekly

Generated by Google Gemini AI on June 28, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Colombia pivots right, the Iran war MOU is tested throughout the week, Ebola spreading in DRC sight unseen, and Ukraine vows to bring the war to Moscow.

Colombia Swings Right as Crime Concerns Dominate the Ballot

Police scort coca erradicators during a working day of manual eradication in Taraza , Colombia, Tuesday, June,17, 2008. Guarded by police officer more than two hundred peasants are eradicating coca crops in the region., modified, William Fernando Martinez. CC Policia Nationale Colombia; https://www.flickr.com/photos/policiacolombia/5519739253

Newly elected right-wing President Abelardo de la Espriella wants to use Nayib Bukele’s heavy-handed tactics to reduce violence. But there’s a problem: Colombia is not El Salvador, and gang members are not insurgents.

Washington’s New Terrorist Designations Risks Derailing US-Brazil Relations

U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Tahoma crew members conduct interdiction operations in the Gulf of America, May 8, 2026. Tahoma’s crew, alongside a deployed Coast Guard Helicopter Interdiction Tactical Squadron aircrew, stopped three suspected smuggling vessels carrying narcotics during a maritime patrol approximately 90 miles off Cartagena, Colombia. (U.S. Coast Guard photo), modified, https://media.defense.gov/2026/May/14/2003930672/-1/-1/0/260508-G-G0107-1002.JPG

A US terrorist designation of two major Brazilian organized crime outfits is not a matter of law enforcement - it’s a geopolitical weapon, speak nothing of a compliance nightmare for regional banks, and it will reverberate across US-Brazilian relations for years to come.

Venezuela’s Real Export May Be Authoritarian Survival

cc Wilfredor, a mural in Caracas, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mural_Chavez_is_God_in_Caracas.jpg

The surprising durability of Venezuelan Chavismo hints at a new kind of authoritarianism, one that relies less on individual charisma and more on layered networks of elites who all stand to lose from change. And it’s not just Venezuela where this is happening.

Venezuela’s Loss, Guyana’s Strategic Opportunity

BASE CAMP STEPHENSON, Guyana - Guyana Defense Force (GDF) personnel and Florida Army National Guard Soldiers with B/2-54th Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB) assess security tactics during a knowledge exchange at Base Camp Stephenson, Guyana, March 22, 2022. Guyana and the Florida Guard have been partners under the National Guard Bureau's State Partnership Program since 2003.

The geopolitical importance of Guyana has been underscored by the recent regime change in Venezuela.

How Venezuela Paved the Way for Resurgent US Hegemony

Statue of Simon Bolivar, modified, cc ruurmo, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/81752595@N00/102667688/

Regime change in Venezuela can be traced back to Hugo Chavez acting against the geopolitical imperatives of his country. And now Washington is making the exact same mistake.

Geopolitics Weekly (US-Australia Rare Earths Deal, Carrier Strike Group in Caribbean)

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This week we cover new US sanctions against Russian oil majors, the deployment of a US Carrier Strike Group to the Caribbean, a US-Australia rare earths deal, and the outcome of highly consequential midterm elections in Argentina.

Geopolitics Weekly (EU Drone Wall, Argentine Midterms)

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This week we cover new EU initiatives meant to shore up defenses along the bloc’s eastern flank, President Trump’s foray into the heart of Argentine politics, and a new political coalition that could shake up foreign policy in Japan.

Trump Tariffs Backfiring in Brazil

cc Lula Ofical, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/lulaoficial/54708759895/ 08.08.2025 – Cerimônia de anúncios de investimentos do Governo Federal para o estado de Rondônia Presidente da República, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, durante cerimônia de anúncios de investimentos do Governo Federal para o estado de Rondônia. Local – Cidade – RO. Foto: Ricardo Stuckert / PR

Far from achieving their narrow goal of ending the prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro, the Brazil Trump tariffs have backfired on numerous fronts: strengthening Lula politically, accelerating Brazil's pivot toward China, and catalyzing regional integration initiatives that exclude US participation.

Escalating Violence in Ecuador: New Front in a Forever War on Drugs?

Peruvian and Columbian Army troops train on American weapons systems at Fuerte Lautaro, Santiago, Chile, on Oct. 13, 2002. Cabanas 2002 Chile is a multinational combined readiness training exercise centered around peacekeeping operational tasks. This exercise provides an opportunity for over 1,300 military and civilian personnel from Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and the United States to increase their state of readiness in combined multinational peacekeeping operations and a forum to encourage human rights. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Stacy L. Pearsall) (Released)

Now over half a century since the War on Drugs was launched, has the broader campaign against the cartels become a forever war in Ecuador?

Supreme Court Ruling Lands a Blow against Mining Interests in Panama

cc Gobierno de Chile, President Gabriel Boric Font held a bilateral meeting with the President of Panama, Laurentino Cortizo, at the sidelines of the ninth Summit of the Americas.; modified cc, Gazeta Oficial

The ruling against First Quantum Minerals is being heralded as a victory for environmental rights and people power.

Protests Put Panama’s First Quantum Minerals Copper Project in Doubt

cc Karinacarrillo92 -, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&limit=500&offset=0&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1&search=panama+flag+filetype%3Abitmap&advancedSearch-current={%22fields%22:{%22filetype%22:%22bitmap%22}}#/media/File:Edificio_de_la_Administraci%C3%B3n_Y_SU_BANDERA.jpg

The Panamanian government has called a referendum to decide the fate of a contentious copper mining project, in what is now being viewed as a major victory for activists across the region.

2023 Guatemala Presidential Election: The Pink Tide Turns?

cc Nicolas Raymond, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/80497449@N04/7383708098/in/photolist-cftrb3-7v5Qc3-8AQZSx-8BMrmb-JX71b5-K7ieCT-64UsGH-2eHJVS5-64YJXu-K8SxLe-K1NVwp-K25Skc-K1NW1F-K8LtCB-K8Lt2B-K8LtjF-dE9DNt-4mfMA3-dE9CYr-8nYyaF-K1NWGR-25iTH1k-JGSXCY-JckREp-TMdoa7-27ZEYp5-JYR6B3-K25Sqn-K62PfS-K25Sxr-JaRk1w-Jcp3x1-K5QDAo-JYEmnN-JYEmzm-JYEmNN-JYEmFy-K5QDLU-64UsyH-64UspB-63LdEt-6GZVwe-K1NUYv-JYEmRy-MmGrae-Lpf1WA-7mGQa7-8m8B1Q-7vitGj-2mS64Uq

Guatemala stands on the precipice of an era-defining election, one that will have implications for the ‘pink tide’ sweeping Central and South America.

This Machine Runs on Water: Lithium in Latin America

cc psyberartist, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/psyberartist/6016688970/in/photolist-aaF71J-aaCef4-aaCbsv-aaF5F5-9j75XM-9j7idZ-9ja29Y-9j6Nrc-8VT8yi-9j7opK-9j7btx-9j9JCm-9j9Kph-9j6RNX-9j9EmW-9j9Fb3-9j6DFZ-9j9T63-9j9S6Y-9j9YSC-9j6L2z-9j6SFB-9j7mNt-9j7jU2-9j7nuM-9jap8L-9j7m6z-9j7kpH-9j9Ums-9j7j8H-a3M86w-9jac7j-9jagVu-9j6vGH-9j6yot-9j6Pqg-9j6Qcg-9j7hca-9j9Loj-9jacV9-9j77Bp-9j7LRt-aMPDpv-6arXby-28vLsDa-a3Jp6a-a3M7Kq-a3MeRU-a3Jjnk-9jaixQ

Lithium holds the promise of revolutionizing the carbon-based global economy. But it has a dirty little secret in the intense water usage involved in its extraction.

Chile Announces Plan to Nationalize Lithium Industry

cc Coordenação-Geral de Observação da Terra/INPE, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=chile%20lithium&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Salar_de_Atacama,_Chile.jpg

Resource nationalism continues to ripple through South America as governments consolidate control over critical mineral industries like lithium.

Argentina: In the Eye of the Lithium Storm

cc Coordenação-Geral de Observação da Terra/INPE, Flickr, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/observacao-da-terra/30427822967

Lithium is increasing Argentina’s geopolitical relevance, and Beijing and Washington are watching. But is Buenos Aires strong enough to play both sides?

Bolivia’s Lithium Reserves: Unfulfilled Ambitions, New Promises

cc Dan Lunberg, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=lithium%20bolivia&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:20170809_Bolivia_1506_crop_Uyuni_sRGB_(37980061291).jpg

A massive deal promises a new wave of Chinese investment into Bolivia’s lithium industry, raising new geopolitical and developmental concerns.

Common Ground & Common Currency: Argentina-Brazil Monetary Union

cc Awmcphee, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Brazil_R$01_2013.jpg

Amid declarations of the death of globalization, Argentina and Brazil are looking to advance de-dollarization and regional trade interests via currency union.

Bolsonaro Will Have to Go Quietly

cc modified, Coletivo Resistência, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&redirs=0&search=lula%20celebration&fulltext=Search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns14=1&title=Special:Search&advanced=1&fulltext=Advanced%20search#/media/File:30102022--lula-presidente-eleito-discursa-na-paulista_52468182869_o_(52468365397).jpg

Bolsonaro’s quiet capitulation illustrates how none of the necessary ingredients for a coup were present in Brazil in the aftermath of the presidential election.

Bolsonaro Won’t Go Quietly

cc Palácio do Planalto - https://www.flickr.com/photos/palaciodoplanalto/48563245511/, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&limit=500&offset=0&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns14=1&sort=last_edit_desc&search=brazil+bolsonaro+filetype%3Abitmap&sort=last_edit_desc&advancedSearch-current={%22fields%22:{%22filetype%22:%22bitmap%22}}#/media/File:2019_Cerim%C3%B4nia_de_abertura_do_rodeio_da_64%C2%AA_Festa_do_Pe%C3%A3o_de_Boiadeiro_de_Barretos_-_48563245511.jpg

The election might be over, but the question as to who will be Brazil’s next leader remains unanswered.

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