Middle East

Iran War MOU Runs Political Gauntlet, Survives (For Now)

What Happened

A framework agreement between the US and Iran was announced by President Trump on Sunday June 14. This 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) was then signed digitally by both sides on June 17.

The MOU is a framework and carries no obligations under international law. It establishes a 60-day second phase of talks in Switzerland intended to produce a final, comprehensive deal to be ratified by the UNSC. The talks began on June 21, with a US delegation headed by JD Vance. The early tone from both camps is positive.

Why It Matters

What’s in the 14-point MOU? In the context of President Trump’s lose-lose options of protracted military quagmire or profound political embarrassment, the final text of the MOU is as expected.

The Iran war MOU:

  • Establishes the ceasefire’s scope as inclusive of Lebanon (more on this below) and pledges mutual non-interference and respect of territorial integrity, including among allies.
  • Establishes an extendable 60-day period for technical talks in Switzerland. This round will delve into the technical details surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Pledges the US to begin to halt enforcement of the naval blockade of Iran upon signing of the MOU, and ‘fully end’ the blockade within 30 days. The US will remove ‘its forces’ from ‘the proximity of’ Iran within 30 days of the final deal being signed. Notice the vague language here that remains wide open for interpretation: What forces? How proximate?
  • Pledges Iran to make its ‘best efforts’ to ensure safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This clause involves two major concessions for Iran: 1) it only guarantees toll-free passage of the Strait for 60 days; 2) it invokes new talks between Iran and Oman on ‘future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz,’ thus adding to the growing body of evidence to suggest Tehran is committed to permanently altering the regulatory status quo surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, this is evidently a negotiating imperative that comes directly from the Supreme Leader.
  • Pledges the US and ‘regional partners’ to submit a plan worth at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran. Details of the plan are to be agreed upon in the final deal. The $300 billion figure is a political landmine, and especially so given President Trump’s record of hammering the Obama administration over the $1.7 billion in financial relief it granted Iran in 2015. But political and diplomatic realities make it unlikely that this $300 billion fund is enshrined and implemented as presently envisioned. There may well be a huge chunk of reconstruction finance in Iran’s future, but it won’t necessarily be funded by US taxpayers. Frozen Iranian assets represent one possible source. Another is actually toll revenue, which would provide some political cover for Washington in being able to claim that they are a temporary mechanism linked to reconstruction.