How Trump’s Marine Monument Announcement Counters China in the Pacific
President Trump's maritime national monument order has been viewed as a deregulation story. But it's also a strategic one that places US civilian vessels in close proximity to China’s irregular maritime forces in the Pacific.
Colombia Swings Right as Crime Concerns Dominate the Ballot
Newly elected right-wing President Abelardo de la Espriella wants to use Nayib Bukele’s heavy-handed tactics to reduce violence. But there’s a problem: Colombia is not El Salvador, and gang members are not insurgents.
Pleas and Pricing Controls: India’s Golden Opportunity
Gold remains central to Indian household finances, despite all the best efforts of the state.
From MAGA to Making America Less Reliable
The Iran war has highlighted the difference between projecting power and producing trust.
Can Spain’s Prime Minister Survive his Deepest Crisis Yet?
The question facing Spanish politics is not whether Prime Minister Sánchez can withstand the political storm of recent scandals, but whether opposition parties are ready and able to capitalize on the opportunity.
Iran War MOU: Harbinger of a New Mideast Order | Geopolitics Weekly
Taking a deep dive into the Iran war memorandum of understanding – an agreement as delicate as it is consequential for the future of American power in the Middle East.
Dawn of AI Geopolitics: Regulation, Norms, and Power Beyond Hardware
States are over-securitizing inputs and under-governing outputs, leaving the most consequential domains of AI power largely unregulated and open to capture.
IMEC Corridor Seeks Reboot after Hormuz Stress Test
The US-backed IMEC corridor sought to bolster resilience against the weaponization of chokepoints. Yet the Iran war closed the very waters the transport corridor relies on, and this is now forcing a rethink on future routes.
Anthropic’s Fable Debacle and the Perils of Dual-use AI Technologies
The debacle surrounding the launch of Fable by Anthropic is only the tip of the iceberg of dual-use AI. If effective safeguards are not established, the AI arms race ensures that dangerous models will fall into the hands of bad actors.
2026 Gibraltar Agreement: Can Spain Erode British Sovereignty?
The UK and Spain celebrate the deal as a historic pact, yet the dispute over Gibraltar sovereignty persists.
Iran War Memorandum of Understanding, Paradigm Shift in US-Europe Relations | Geopolitics Weekly
Washington and Tehran agree on a memorandum of understanding, but the Iran war is far from over; Europeans are souring on trans-Atlantic relations just as the Trump administration rotates military assets away from the continent; and Ukraine’s FP-5 Flamingo has scored an early operational success deep within Russia.
The Iran War: Attack on Thirsty Nation
Water infrastructure has emerged as a strategic target in the Iran war, signaling a possible trend for future conflicts.
“Hormuz Safe”: Iran’s Fifth Layer of Maritime Sovereignty
For Washington, Iran’s “Hormuz Safe” scheme is a dangerous proposition, demonstrating that a sanctioned state can build its own maritime financial infrastructure, bypassing Lloyd's, the dollar, and US sanctions simultaneously.
Escaping Southeast Asia’s Critical Minerals Trap
Critical minerals like nickel and tin may power the next economy, but extraction alone will not secure ASEAN’s place in it. Southeast Asia does not need to become the quarry of the energy transition. It needs to become one of its industrial architects.
Thai-Cambodian Maritime Dispute: From MOU 2001 to UNCLOS Conciliation
The institutional framework governing the Thai-Cambodian maritime dispute collapsed with Bangkok’s recent withdrawal from MOU 44. Here’s what the new process might look like.
DP World’s Brazil-Africa Corridor: Rise of a New South Atlantic Trade Lane?
DP World’s vision of a Brazil-Africa Corridor signals the steady extension of Gulf logistics control into the South Atlantic. But the project, which would alter supply chains for food, energy, and minerals, is far from geopolitically neutral.
Iran War Ceasefire Frays, Taiwan-China South China Sea Standoff, El Niño | Geopolitics Weekly
Pressure mounts on the Iran war ceasefire; Taiwan and China face off at a disputed atoll in the South China Sea; a supercharged El Niño threatens to compound an already dire food security outlook; and the House GOP defies President Trump on the Ukraine war.
Geopolitical Orientation on the Ballot in Armenia Elections
Armenians head to the polls on June 7. The election outcome will affect not just domestic governance, but Armenia’s geopolitical orientation going forward, with consequences for the peace process with Azerbaijan and wider stability across the South Caucasus.
Washington Risks Repeating Israel’s Strategic Mistake in the War of Attrition
The risk faced by the United States in the Strait of Hormuz mirrors Israel’s War of Attrition against Egypt: What presents as a contained skirmish may actually be setting the stage for a future regional war.
How the Ukraine War Reshaped Russia’s Long-Range Strike Capabilities
Russia has re-invented its long-range strike capabilities over the course of the Ukraine war, moving from import dependency and exhausted stockpiles to a domestic production capacity that is now eclipsing NATO.
