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De-escalation Without Resolution: Iran and the Limits of American Power

Situation Reports — Jun 19, 2026

De-escalation Without Resolution: Iran and the Limits of American Power

The Iran war has revealed both the enduring military predominance of the US and the limits of that power in shaping political outcomes.

A Hard Offer to Refuse: Ukraine’s Strategic Pitch to a Middle East in Flux

Jun 01, 2026 — Backgrounders

A Hard Offer to Refuse: Ukraine’s Strategic Pitch to a Middle East in Flux

Russia’s support for its Iranian ally imperils years of economic and diplomatic engagement with Gulf states. Ukraine has taken advantage of this contradiction, offering Gulf states no-strings-attached operational expertise against a weapon that Kyiv knows too well. The resulting erosion of Russia’s footprint in the Middle East will resonate for years, if not decades to come.

Iran Is Not Trying to Close Hormuz Anymore. It Is Trying to Own It.

May 26, 2026 — Situation Reports

Iran Is Not Trying to Close Hormuz Anymore. It Is Trying to Own It.

While Gulf states invest in bypass pipelines to escape Iranian geography, Tehran is successfully institutionalizing permanent administrative control over the Strait through a new maritime toll authority and a "don’t-ask-don’t-tell" insurance market.

Abu Dhabi’s OPEC Exit and the Architecture No One Admitted Was Breaking

Apr 29, 2026 — Situation Reports

Abu Dhabi’s OPEC Exit and the Architecture No One Admitted Was Breaking

UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC may have come as a shock to some, but this is a decision that was made incrementally, across fifteen years, and in theaters far from any OPEC meeting room.

Pakistan’s Debt Dispute with UAE Signals Possible Bilateral Rift

Apr 17, 2026 — Situation Reports

Pakistan’s Debt Dispute with UAE Signals Possible Bilateral Rift

Islamabad’s attempt to position itself as a credible mediator in the Iran war obscures evidently deteriorating relationships with regional partners like the UAE.

Is the GCC Ready for War? The High Stakes of Confronting Iran

Mar 27, 2026 — Forecasts

Is the GCC Ready for War? The High Stakes of Confronting Iran

Gulf leaders are being forced to decide whether to remain in a defensive posture or join offensive operations against Iran to reestablish credibility. The wrong move could lock the region into a cycle of infrastructure warfare that lasts years.

Warlord’s Portfolio: Mapping the RSF Economy from Darfur to Dubai

Mar 24, 2026 — Situation Reports

Warlord’s Portfolio: Mapping the RSF Economy from Darfur to Dubai

The RSF has leveraged a combination of territorial control and family-based corporate networks to create one of the richest statelets in existence, with geopolitical weight that extends far beyond Sudan’s borders.

What the Iran War Reveals About the Limits of US Power

Mar 24, 2026 — Opinion

What the Iran War Reveals About the Limits of US Power

The Iran conflict reflects a sobering lesson for US policymakers: in an era of asymmetric competition and economic interdependence, raw military strength alone is no longer sufficient to guarantee strategic control.

Saudi–UAE Tensions Come to a Head in Mukalla Incident

Jan 02, 2026 — Situation Reports

Saudi–UAE Tensions Come to a Head in Mukalla Incident

The Mukalla airstrikes in Yemen represent a critical inflection point in Gulf security dynamics, exposing deepening fissures in Saudi–UAE coordination and signaling a potential reconfiguration of regional security priorities.