Opec News & Analysis

Kazakhstan Next to Leave? The OPEC+ Question After UAE’s Exit

cc Quirinale, modified, Il Presidente Sergio Mattarella incontra Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Presidente della Repubblica del Kazakhstan, in visita ufficiale, Palazzo del Quirinale, 18 gennaio 2024 (foto di Francesco Ammendola - Ufficio per la Stampa e la Comunicazione della Presidenza della Repubblica) - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sergio_Mattarella_con_Kassym-Jomart_Tokayev,_Presidente_della_Repubblica_del_Kazakistan_in_visita_ufficiale,_Palazzo_del_Quirinale,_18_gennaio_2024_(05).jpg

Kazakhstan is grappling with the same fiscal and capital pressures as other recent ex-members of OPEC and OPEC+. Will Astana arrive at the same decision to leave the cartel?

UAE Leaves OPEC: A Structural Realignment in Global Oil Markets?

OPEC Flag. Generated by Google Gemini AI on May 1, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The UAE’s exit from OPEC marks the third member in seven years to leave the cartel. Given looming peak oil demand and OPEC’s dwindling share of global production: it won’t be the last.

Abu Dhabi’s OPEC Exit and the Architecture No One Admitted Was Breaking

Official welcome ceremony was held for President of United Arab Emirates Sheiкh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. / modified, / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Official_welcome_ceremony_was_held_for_President_of_United_Arab_Emirates_Sheikh_Mohamed_bin_Zayed_Al_Nahyan_07.jpg

UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC may have come as a shock to some, but this is a decision that was made incrementally, across fifteen years, and in theaters far from any OPEC meeting room.

Trump’s Middle East Visit: A Calculated Power Play in the New Geopolitical Normal

cc Trump White House/ President Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia in 2017 / https://flickr.com/photos/whitehouse45/34398799400/in/photolist-286V31w-TK1vF1-THmmWE-M4roSU-UpGQwf-26rrUFs-TK1vj9-TRfij2-TMX5vP-UpGQCh-THmyp9-TMX4za-TRfidk-UWd6qS-286Nae3-NAHSP-UZLxnD-M4nVKU-297R9Rs-TMX45n-27Per9T-TK1wL7-UWd5Yu-27PfhL8-TLgxKp-UZLy36-UN4vxF-TRfjaF-UZLxN8-UZLy4P-UKpTVL-TLgxSD-UN4wDt-UPMktc-UZLyoX-UZLyor-286SNVN-UPMkFX-UZLxxi-Urogi5-26rpDLS-Qd7Lwv-UKpWEo-UWd7iy-UZLwWi-UWd6P7-RzWA2M

Trump will bring a long list of asks when he visits the Middle East for the first formal trip of his second term. But the Gulf states are not passive actors, and they will be making requests of their own.

Russian Economy: Post-Ukraine War Sanctions and the Energy Sector

cc Flickr Glenn Beltz,modified, https://flickr.com/photos/n28307/33200942298/in/photolist-SzRvrC-2hBksnf-2hLfSNc-2i4K6EB-2i4pnnM-2dZTpah-2euF7o8-2hiVcbD-2hMrzuj-25WYghM-2eBnBvG-3KAozn-4FawhR-jiUx9-6bL1gX-6Ez632-6Ez61B-jiUqV-69vEai-ccWzWG-9pLRJn-2eG9ZZV-QmzGca-2jRZVcc-2i5SW4Q-RRrAUS-zZPeGW-2jtUuKU-A1gkT1-zZP5A9-zLKnTV-zL5akW-z7Nhas-z54Jbo-A1oxMr-z3TTDN-zMuCTj-bcTn8P-zJwQ1n-z5bJqC-A3e67q-A2REWY-RruHiW-jzaouT-A3dYCJ-zLBq9m-zahV4t-zMAc6d-A2T22W-z7msaQ

The Russian economy, supported by its energy sector, has successfully weathered the brunt of Western sanctions so far. But this resilience is predicated on China’s unwavering support and pre-war reserves, both of which are finite.

US Shale Resilience Piles Pressure on OPEC+

cc rabiem22, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/rabiem/9439668547/in/photolist-fo9LzZ-duuaXE-SZ8ugW-8qdTnh-owkCtB-8qdNxA-2pBB5mF-29beRG6-6TET4u-2gb7QS1-2ocB4Pt-bdD3NP-Urbjxw-2pCFE33-2mU9jk2-fGDVme-HhhneC-hH6iu-26nqdAW-26c5bLM-2jck2hi-dDDBjP-Fpqk4M-QCcae3-2h6Egr5-4X8osL-2gNK6gx-9jijfP-2gdmuNg-hH6gy-25yuFVS-2mJkD2j-9qHyne-EWEeX-5zrw7i-2ofXSZG-2gWNgDw-faZyRv-hoeNG-2kyvqrw-SnLW4w-GLcsLo-3eoe2z-7SSAof-2atY1pE-own9B1-koarPX-2jxyGfz-7vpPyG-7vm152

Not only has US shale survived early attempts by OPEC+ to squeeze out its operations, but it’s now coming for longstanding OPEC+ markets.

Angola: OPEC’s First Domino?

cc http://government.ru/en/news/48659/, modified,

Angola’s departure from OPEC+ is unlikely to move oil markets, but it certainly doesn’t bode well for the future cohesion of the cartel.

FLASH:IEA Reduces Oil Demand Forecast for 2021

Santa Barbara Channel / Ellwood Oil Field. From left to right: Harmony, Hondo, Heritage., cc Flickr Glenn Beltz, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Weak oil demand is projected to persist through the first half of 2021, compounding divisions within the OPEC+ cartel.

Outlook 2021: A Painful Year for Oil Exporters?

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COVID-19 price pressures have savaged the fiscal health of oil producing states. Which ones will be hurting the most in 2021?

Backgrounder: Nigeria’s Energy Security Dilemma

cc Fakoyede Seun, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:In_Nigeria,_there_is_much_oil_and_with_it,_even_more_hunger.jpg

Security and development deficiencies lurk behind many of the factors that are keeping Nigeria’s energy sector from realizing its considerable economic promise.

2020 OPEC++ Deal Lands with a Whimper

OPECRussiaMeeting, cc Kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61703,

Past OPEC+ deals have been long on hype and short on substance, and this one is unlikely to be any different.

Fiscal Health Check for Oil Exporting States

Oil Refinery, cc Flickr Kurt Bauschardt, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Which exporters stand to lose the most if oil continues to hover at the $50 mark?

Wuhan Coronavirus: The Bear Stalks Global Energy Markets?

Central Command Area of Responsibility (Jun. 29, 2003) -- Commercial oil tanker AbQaiq readies itself to receive oil at Mīnā' al-Bakr Oil Terminal (MABOT), an off shore Iraqi oil installation. The supertanker AbQaiq is the first commercial vessel to receive exported Iraqi oil as an off shore customer since 1991, outside of the United Nations' Oil-for-Food programme. AbQaiq is scheduled to take on an estimated 2 million barrels of crude oil. U.S. Navy and coalition forces are helping to provide security, enforcing an exclusionary perimeter around the terminal. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate 2nd Class Andrew M. Meyers. (RELEASED) - https://uz.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fayl:Tanker_offshore_terminal.jpg

China’s coronavirus outbreak couldn’t have come at a worse time for oversupplied oil and natural gas markets.

Saudi Arabia Oil Attack a Geopolitical Game-changer in the Middle East

Deputy Crown Prince, Second Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Mohammad Bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud participates in the Counter-ISIL Ministerial Joint Ministerial Plenary Session, at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C. on July 21, 2016. [State Department Photo/Public Domain], https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Deputy_Crown_Prince_Mohammad_Bin_Salman_bin_Abdulaziz_Al-Saud_Participates_in_the_Counter-ISIL_Ministerial_Plenary_Session_-_Flickr_-_U.S._Department_of_State_(cropped).jpg

Riyadh’s evident vulnerability will lead to a search for new regional allies, and Israel is a surprising possible candidate.

Fallout Mounts for Saudi Arabia in Wake of Khashoggi Murder

Defense Secretary Ash Carter hosts an enhanced honor cordon to welcome Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s defense minister, to the Pentagon, June 16, 2016. DoD photo by Air Force Senior Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz, modified, https://dod.defense.gov/Photos/Photo-Gallery/igphoto/2001554944/

The diplomatic consequences are mounting for Saudi Arabia after the apparent assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Oil Prices Continue to Creep Upward

030629-N-4790M-001 Central Command Area of Responsibility (Jun. 29, 2003) -- Commercial oil tanker AbQaiq readies itself to receive oil at Mina-Al-Bkar Oil terminal (MABOT) an off shore Iraqi oil installation. AbQaiq is the first commercial vessel to receive a post-war shipment of crude oil for export at Mabot. AbQaiq is scheduled to take on an estimated 2 million barrels of crude oil. U.S. Navy and coalition forces are helping to provide security, enforcing an exclusionary perimeter around the terminal. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate 2nd Class Andrew M. Meyers. (RELEASED), https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&title=Special:Search&redirs=0&search=oil+tanker&fulltext=Search&fulltext=Advanced+search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns14=1&advanced=1&searchToken=c8v9kp7zj8qr2ca6bo8zpklqw#%2Fmedia%2FFile%3AOil_tanker_Abqaiq_in_2003.jpg

Oil traders are bullish in the shadow of pending Iran sanctions, with some projections suggesting a return of $100-per-barrel prices.

OPEC Goes Rogue on Trump, Keeps Production Steady

Oil_platform_P-51_(Brazil), cc Divulgação Petrobras / ABr, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_platform_P-51_(Brazil).jpg

President Trump’s cozy relationship with Saudi Arabia failed to translate into a production hike from OPEC+ over the weekend.

Iran Sanctions: Energy Market Winners and Losers

RouhaniTASIM, modified, This is an image from the Tasnim News Agency website, which states in its footer,

Iran’s biggest customers are scrambling to secure alternative sources of oil supply.

OPEC Stabilizes Oil Markets, for Now

Oilwells, cc Flickr Richard Masoner / Cyclelicious, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

In Vienna, OPEC+ displayed its greatest strength… and its greatest weakness.

Global Forecast (05-28-2018)

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Another attempt at Taliban talks in Afghanistan, Venezuela’s oil industry struggles to fulfil its contracts, and Turkey secures a YPG pullout from Manbij.

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