Warnings of ‘rearmament’ in Germany and Japan might make for an easy analogy but they miss the point: The question is not whether these countries are increasing military capabilities, but why they are. And here is where the historical comparisons start to fall apart.

The Ukraine war revealed a Russian military that was far more fragile than assumed, and these weaknesses have multiplied as limited resources are funneled toward the immediate demands of the battlefield. When the dust has finally settled, Moscow will face tough questions over whether to rebuild its military capacity as a superpower or a middle power.

Russia has re-invented its long-range strike capabilities over the course of the Ukraine war, moving from import dependency and exhausted stockpiles to a domestic production capacity that is now eclipsing NATO.

Geoengineering risks transforming the climate itself into an arena of geopolitical competition, where the atmosphere, sunlight, and weather systems become objects of strategic control.

Mounting debt burdens are narrowing Washington’s fiscal space and eroding confidence in the US dollar’s reserve currency status. However, history shows that severe fiscal conditions can be reversed; and if not, the more likely outcome is a gradual erosion of confidence in USD assets, not an abrupt collapse.

Russia’s support for its Iranian ally imperils years of economic and diplomatic engagement with Gulf states. Ukraine has taken advantage of this contradiction, offering Gulf states no-strings-attached operational expertise against a weapon that Kyiv knows too well. The resulting erosion of Russia’s footprint in the Middle East will resonate for years, if not decades to come.

Examining the evolution of constitutional “One China” framework, which endures because it accommodates contradictions between Beijing and Taipei without forcing either side to concede – managing tensions while never fully resolving them.

The US congressional consensus on Taiwan still matters. But amid a widening gap between commitment and capability, it matters less than it used to.

Examining Syrian refugee populations in neighboring countries and the European Union, as well as the challenges faced by host governments and the al-Sharaa regime in inducing them to return and help rebuild a country devastated by civil war.

A field guide to the four theories that actually explain international relations. None alone can explain the evolution of international society. But taken together, they are the best and only way to decode complex international events.

The invocation of Christian iconography in US framing of the Iran war is not some trivial rhetorical shift or meaningless theater for domestic audiences. Rather, it represents a highly consequential shift in the language of US war-making, one that will resonate across a range of US strategic interests for years to come.

President Trump’s ‘Project Vault’ echoes strategic concerns that gave rise to the National Defense Stockpile during the Cold War era, but this new US critical mineral stockpiling effort must navigate a profoundly different policy context and global market.

In the heartland of ancient Persia, the lines in the sand of West Asia’s geoeconomic map are being redrawn.

Examining the cycle of accumulation, complacency, and disposal that characterized US strategic mineral stockpiling through the 20th century.

Recent history shows that durable security arrangements depend less on formal promises than on a combination of dense verification, credible sponsorship, and pre-agreed enforcement – all of which are proving elusive in the Ukraine war.

The future of the strait is not shaped by decisive breakthroughs. It is shaped by the continuous, indefinite management of a divide that cannot be closed, a delicate choreography that is at once necessary, strategic, and perpetually unstable.

Examining over 75 years of relations between the United States and the Republic of China (Taiwan) – a core relationship characterized by a mix of empowerment and constraint.

The assassination of New Generation Jalisco Cartel (CJNG) leader ‘el Mencho’ is a game-changer, but not necessarily in the way that some analysts were hoping.

In an ongoing effort to sow social discord and create political costs for supporting Ukraine, Moscow is pushing the envelope on gray zone warfare. This backgrounder examines the costs and benefits of the Kremlin’s campaign, highlighting some of the most notable incidents of arson and sabotage on the continent.

Examining the force structure, doctrine, and capabilities of China’s PLA Navy after decades of modernization and rapid shipbuilding.