Latest Analysis

India’s deepening engagement in the Mediterranean demonstrates the birth of a uniquely 21st-century kind of statecraft: deterrence by association.

Warnings of ‘rearmament’ in Germany and Japan might make for an easy analogy but they miss the point: The question is not whether these countries are increasing military capabilities, but why they are. And here is where the historical comparisons start to fall apart.

The debacle surrounding the launch of Fable by Anthropic is only the tip of the iceberg of dual-use AI. If effective safeguards are not established, the AI arms race ensures that dangerous models will fall into the hands of bad actors.

The UK and Spain celebrate the deal as a historic pact, yet the dispute over Gibraltar sovereignty persists.

Washington and Tehran agree on a memorandum of understanding, but the Iran war is far from over; Europeans are souring on trans-Atlantic relations just as the Trump administration rotates military assets away from the continent; and Ukraine’s FP-5 Flamingo has scored an early operational success deep within Russia.

The Ukraine war revealed a Russian military that was far more fragile than assumed, and these weaknesses have multiplied as limited resources are funneled toward the immediate demands of the battlefield. When the dust has finally settled, Moscow will face tough questions over whether to rebuild its military capacity as a superpower or a middle power.

A data-based view of globalization suggests not a binary process of integration-isolation, but rather a layered network structure in which states occupy distinct positional roles in the global economy. It’s not participation that determines a state’s power, but where it’s situated in the global system.

Tellurium represents a critical minerals paradox. On one hand, it accounts for a relatively small global market and tends to be understated in quantitative risk modeling. On the other, it remains a critical input in solar and defense supply chains and is subject to export restrictions from China, which remains the dominant force in global tellurium production.

Water infrastructure has emerged as a strategic target in the Iran war, signaling a possible trend for future conflicts.

New strikes on Israel show how the line between attacks on Iran and attacks on Iran’s strategic ecosystem is becoming blurred, resulting in new risks, new calculations, and a more complex regional security environment going forward.

For Washington, Iran’s “Hormuz Safe” scheme is a dangerous proposition, demonstrating that a sanctioned state can build its own maritime financial infrastructure, bypassing Lloyd's, the dollar, and US sanctions simultaneously.

Critical minerals like nickel and tin may power the next economy, but extraction alone will not secure ASEAN’s place in it. Southeast Asia does not need to become the quarry of the energy transition. It needs to become one of its industrial architects.

The institutional framework governing the Thai-Cambodian maritime dispute collapsed with Bangkok’s recent withdrawal from MOU 44. Here’s what the new process might look like.

DP World’s vision of a Brazil-Africa Corridor signals the steady extension of Gulf logistics control into the South Atlantic. But the project, which would alter supply chains for food, energy, and minerals, is far from geopolitically neutral.

Pressure mounts on the Iran war ceasefire; Taiwan and China face off at a disputed atoll in the South China Sea; a supercharged El Niño threatens to compound an already dire food security outlook; and the House GOP defies President Trump on the Ukraine war.