Arthur Michelino

Backgrounders — Jun 01, 2026

A Hard Offer to Refuse: Ukraine’s Strategic Pitch to a Middle East in Flux

Russia’s support for its Iranian ally imperils years of economic and diplomatic engagement with Gulf states. Ukraine has taken advantage of this contradiction, offering Gulf states no-strings-attached operational expertise against a weapon that Kyiv knows too well. The resulting erosion of Russia’s footprint in the Middle East will resonate for years, if not decades to come.

May 12, 2026 — Situation Reports

West African LNG After Paris: Relief, Dependency, or Diversification?

The Iran war served to focus Europe’s political attention on energy diversification. However, recent summits with African producers reveal that the continent remains unwilling to do what is necessary to achieve it.

Apr 30, 2026 — Situation Reports

Energy Dominance: How the Iran War Reveals America’s Strategic Position

The Iran war and other geopolitical ruptures are allowing Washington to reposition itself from systemic guarantor to indispensable supplier. This new role generates revenue where the previous one generated only obligation, while simultaneously converting the dependency it once protected others from into a dependency directed at Washington itself.

Apr 14, 2026 — Situation Reports

The Atlantic Corridor: West Africa and Europe’s Hedge against US Energy Leverage

The Iran war has cast a spotlight on supply risks inherent to corridor architecture. With the search now on for ways to diversify beyond a volatile Middle East and conditional US suppliers, the West African Atlantic corridor stands out as a way for Brussels to achieve more durable energy security.

Jan 15, 2026 — Situation Reports

Trump’s Venezuela Gambit: The Limits of Shock Politics

Without stable, predictable governance and insurance companies willing to cover Venezuelan risks, tactical military success will not translate into sustained economic engagement.

Jan 06, 2026 — Situation Reports

The Trump Corollary: How Gunboat Diplomacy Returned to the Americas

The Maduro operation was coercive diplomacy enforced by overwhelming military action, rather than regime change framed as democratization. In other words, it is gunboat diplomacy adapted to the twenty-first century.

Dec 30, 2025 — Situation Reports

France’s Carrier Solution to Europe’s Defense Problem

In committing to a new nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, France as one state is doing what collective EU frameworks have struggled to achieve. But there will be long-lasting strategic consequences.

Nov 26, 2025 — Situation Reports

A Lucrative Hypothetical: Mauritania and the Nigeria–Morocco Pipeline

For Mauritania, the Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline delivers option value through minimal cost, maximum flexibility, and leverage that compounds, whether or not the gas ever actually flows.

Sep 26, 2025 — Backgrounders

Italy’s Mattei Plan: Geoeconomic Projection into Africa

The Mattei Plan is a past paradigm of Italy-Africa engagement that the Meloni administration is hoping will help consolidate Italy’s position as Europe’s southern actor in Africa. But complex geopolitical dynamics risk reducing the Plan to yet another initiative whose ambition outpaced its capacity to endure.

Sep 04, 2025 — Situation Reports

Mauritania Joins the LNG Club: The Geoeconomics of West African Energy

Mauritania’s Greater Tortue Ahmeyim is a milestone for the West African state, but if it is to be remembered as more than just a technical event, Nouakchott must translate new revenues into fiscal stability at home, influence in West Africa, and credibility in global markets.