Venezuela Regime Change News & Analysis

Geopolitics Weekly (Trump and Venezuela, Syria Assassinations, China’s Treasury Dump)

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This week we examine Trump’s embrace of the Chavista regime in Venezuela, reports of multiple assassination attempts targeting President al-Shaara in Syria, Beijing’s accelerating efforts to offload US debt, and new indications in Europe and Canada of a fundamental realignment in global defense industries.

Venezuela and Iran Unrest: Implications for China’s Oil Import Economics

cc Calistemon, modified, The Crude Oil Tanker SKS Duoro at BP Oil Refinery Jetty, Kwinana, Western Australia. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Crude_Oil_Tanker_SKS_Duoro_at_BP_Oil_Refinery_Jetty,_Kwinana,_May_2023_04.jpg

A potential cut-off from Venezuelan and/or Iranian oil supply is a marginal-cost issue, not a systemic vulnerability for China’s overall energy security.

Trump’s Venezuela Gambit: The Limits of Shock Politics

cc Iliana Rosales, modified, Government meeting of Venezuela in the aftermath of the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vicepresidenta_Delcy_Rodr%C3%ADguez_garantiza_justicia_contra_los_extremistas_que_promovieron_agresi%C3%B3n_armada.jpg

Without stable, predictable governance and insurance companies willing to cover Venezuelan risks, tactical military success will not translate into sustained economic engagement.

Why Venezuela’s Air Defenses Never Fired

S-300 Venezuela abstraction, Generated by Google Gemini AI on January 12 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The Venezuelan operation vividly illustrates how 21st century warfare is increasingly defined less as a clash of forces than as an asymmetric competition between decision architectures.

Maduro Is Gone. Venezuela’s Regime Remains

Mural Maduro, Bolívar y Chávez. País: Venezuela, modified, cc Guaiquerí - https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?limit=50&offset=0&profile=default&search=maduro&title=Special:Search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Mural_Maduro,_Bol%C3%ADvar_y_Ch%C3%A1vez.jpg

The removal of Nicolás Maduro may satisfy Washington’s appetite for decisive action, but it does not amount to regime change.

Geopolitics Weekly (Iran Protest Crackdown, Venezuela Limbo, BRICS Plus Exercises)

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This week we examine worsening protests across Iran, a state of geopolitical limbo descending over Venezuela, and a tentative step into hard power projection from the BRICS Plus bloc.

Venezuela: Chronicle of a Regime Change Foretold

cc US military via Truth Social, modified, altered by Google Gemini AI on January 5 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Regime change in Venezuela is a game-changing development that will resonate across the geopolitics of the Americas. But it’s not without its risks.

Venezuela’s Loss, Guyana’s Strategic Opportunity

BASE CAMP STEPHENSON, Guyana - Guyana Defense Force (GDF) personnel and Florida Army National Guard Soldiers with B/2-54th Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB) assess security tactics during a knowledge exchange at Base Camp Stephenson, Guyana, March 22, 2022. Guyana and the Florida Guard have been partners under the National Guard Bureau's State Partnership Program since 2003.

The geopolitical importance of Guyana has been underscored by the recent regime change in Venezuela.

The Trump Corollary: How Gunboat Diplomacy Returned to the Americas

Bulmer, anchored off Tsingtao, China, circa 1928 (U.S. Navy Photograph 80-G-1035053, National Archives and Records Administration, Still Pictures Division, College Park, Md.)

The Maduro operation was coercive diplomacy enforced by overwhelming military action, rather than regime change framed as democratization. In other words, it is gunboat diplomacy adapted to the twenty-first century.

Caracas Falls, and the Global South Takes Note

cc White House, modified, https://media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/05/2003851164/-1/-1/0/260103-D-D0439-004.JPG

The arrest of Nicolás Maduro hardens a quiet conviction already spreading across the South: that the rules of the international order are no longer universal, but situational—and that survival now depends not on norms, but on leverage.

Geopolitics Weekly (Venezuela Maduro Capture, Saudi-UAE Tensions, Iran Protests)

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This week we examine fallout from the US military’s capture of President Maduro in Venezuela, cascading Saudi-UAE tensions over Yemen, and a new protest movement sweeping Iran.

How Venezuela Paved the Way for Resurgent US Hegemony

Statue of Simon Bolivar, modified, cc ruurmo, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/81752595@N00/102667688/

Regime change in Venezuela can be traced back to Hugo Chavez acting against the geopolitical imperatives of his country. And now Washington is making the exact same mistake.

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