Critical Minerals Background
With the December 2017 publication of Executive Order 13817, A Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals, modern political economy fundamentally shifted. The Order concluded that the United States was ‘heavily reliant on imports of certain mineral commodities that are vital to the Nation’s security and economic prosperity.’ And proposed a list of critical minerals for extraordinary onshoring and production policy efforts.
The 2017 order was a conspicuous pivot away from the previous era of free markets and globalization, namely the idea that economic efficiency should be given free reign in shaping global supply chains. Executive Order 13817 marked the return of geopolitics to critical supply chains, and the strategic lens it adopted has become increasingly common: the Biden administration expanded critical mineral efforts soon after taking office; the outbreak of the Ukraine war demonstrated the existential importance of ‘friendshoring’ supply chains; and China has repeatedly leveraged its domination of certain extraction and refining supply chains to circumvent punitive trade actions from Washington. Now in the second Trump administration, the critical minerals list has been consolidated and expanded under the Interior Department, now including 60 minerals ‘vital to the US economy and national security.’ The administration has also been aggressively investing in extraction and refining operations in US or allied states, sometimes even taking equity direct stakes in mining and processing companies. Finally the February 2026 launch of Project Vault envisions an aggressive stockpiling initiative of the likes not seen since the Cold War.
Taking a step back, the post-2017 trend is clear: geopolitics are now the defining aspect of critical mineral supply chains, and the industrial and foreign policies of Western states reflect this.
What Are Critical Minerals?
The 2017 executive order defines critical minerals as:
- a non-fuel mineral or mineral material essential to the economic and national security of the United States;
- part of a supply chain that is vulnerable to disruption;
- serving an essential function in the manufacturing of a product impacting economic or national security.
Geopolitics of Key Critical Minerals
| Mineral | Geopolitical Overview | In-Depth Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Cobalt | Cobalt is an essential input in a range of emerging technologies, notably lithium-ion batteries, and over 70% of the global cobalt supply is sourced from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Yet despite its near-monopoly position, the ability of the DRC to influence global prices is negligible due in large part to the multitude of small-scale operators, many of which mine, process, and sell their product outside of the purview of government regulation. Indonesia and Russia are the next top producers, though their output is dwarfed by the DRC. | Cobalt Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
| Gallium | Gallium is a soft, silvery metal that producers recover almost entirely as a byproduct of aluminum and zinc processing. It has emerged as one of the most geopolitically contested commodities of the decade, as gallium-based semiconductors power 5G networks, military radar systems, and satellite communications. China’s domination of gallium supply chains eclipses that of nearly all other critical minerals, accounting for as much as 99% of low-purity gallium production as of 2026. | Gallium Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
| Graphite | Graphite exhibits unique properties crucial to a variety of industrial processes. It is characterized by high thermal stability, chemical inertness, exceptional conductivity, and inherent lubricating capabilities. Furthermore, graphite’s resilience to extreme temperatures renders it an indispensable material for various industries, particularly battery technology. Graphite forms the primary component in the anodes of lithium-ion batteries used to power Electric Vehicles (EVs), smartphones, laptops, and storage systems for electric grids. China dominated global production of graphite by a wide margin in 2024. | Graphite Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
| Indium | Indium is a chemical element that is recovered as a byproduct of zinc smelting; output is more a factor of zinc than indium prices. It inhabits a critical position in consumer supply chains for touchscreens, OLED screens, and televisions. It is also a key component in the optical infrastructure of AI data centers. As of 2026, China controls approximately 70% of global indium production. | Indium Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
| Lithium | Lithium is a silvery-white alkali metal that is lighter, more stable, more environmentally friendly to extract, and more energy dense than alternative battery chemistry elements such as nickel-metal and lead-acid. These properties have helped make lithium-ion batteries an essential input in electric vehicles and intermittent renewable energy storage (solar, wind, e.g.) – industries that are expected to boom as the global economy transitions away from fossil fuels over the coming decades. | Lithium Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
| Nickel | Nickel is a transition metal that is hard, lustrous, ductile, and conductive of heat and electricity. The metal has been used extensively as an alloy since its formal classification in the 18th century. Nickel can be blended with other metals to produce stronger, shinier, and more durable blends, and these properties have made it an invaluable input for minting corrosion-resistant coinage, as protective plating, and in the production of batteries. Indonesia was far and away the largest nickel producer in 2024, followed by the Philippines, Russia, China, and Canada. | Nickel Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
| Palladium | Palladium is a precious metal belonging to the platinum-group metals (PGMs), which includes platinum, rhodium, iridium, osmium, and ruthenium. Palladium is most often extracted as a byproduct of mining for platinum and nickel. Thus, market demand and prices for platinum and/or nickel figure significantly in the economics of palladium production. Emerging green technologies are also expected to drive future demand for palladium, particularly in hydrogen fuel cells, where the metal serves as an efficient catalyst for the electrochemical process that generates electricity. | Palladium Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
| Rare Earth Minerals (REEs) | Rare earth minerals comprise 17 (15 commercially relevant) chemical elements and soft heavy-metals like Thulium and Cerium. They are vital in modern technologies from cell phones to windmill magnets. Despite the name, rare earth elements are abundant, though economically exploitable deposits are uncommon. Extraction and purification of REEs plays a pivotal role in achieving a zero carbon transition, supporting battery tech, windmill efficiency, and solar panel production. China maintains a near monopoly on rare earth production, causing both the EU and the U.S. to designate them as critical minerals. China has restricted exports of rare earths on two notable occasions: the 2010 Senkaku Island dispute with Japan and in 2025 trade tensions with the United States. In 2025, the US government became directly involved in the rare earths space by investing in the Mountain Pass mine in California – the only active REE mine in the United States. | Rare Earths Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
| Tantalum | Tantalum is a refractory metal, known for its high levels of resistance to heat, water, and corrosion. It is also a ductile metal, meaning its malleability allows it to be used in very thin layers, like wire, with little to no risk of fracture. Tantalum has featured most prominently in the electronics and semiconductor industries, where it can be found in capacitors which store and release electricity in a circuit. It is also valued as a superalloy, and this is where it is expected to play a growing role in future technologies in the energy and defense industries, in products such as turbine blades, rocket nozzles, and nose caps. Tantalum, along with tin, tungsten, and gold, are all members of the 3TG group, which are most popularly referred to as “conflict minerals” given their relevance and contribution to ongoing conflicts in East Africa. | Tantalum Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
| Tellurium | Tellurium is a stable element whose global supply is overwhelmingly (90%) derived as a byproduct of electrolytic copper refining. Tellurium demand divides along two strategic lines: energy (particularly solar) and defense. It was included in the 2025 US Department of the Interior critical minerals list. As of 2026, China accounts for 80% of global output. Tellurium was one of the critical minerals conspicuously absent from the 2025 ‘trade truce’ between President Trump and Xi Jinping, and remains subject to Chinese export restrictions. | Tellurium Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
| Titanium | Titanium is a silver-colored and ductile transition metal that possesses the strength of steel, while carrying less than half (40-45%) of steel’s weight. This characteristic, coupled with titanium’s renowned ability to resist corrosion and withstand a significant amount of exposure to high temperatures, makes the metal an ideal alloy with cheaper and more abundant metals like iron and aluminum. Titanium is classified as a critical mineral due to its applications in the aerospace and defense industries, specifically in advanced air and spacecraft, and to a lesser extent, naval ships. | Titanium Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
| Tungsten | Tungsten is uniquely dense and has a high melting point, making it highly sought-after across a variety of industrial, high-tech, and defense applications ranging from semiconductors to armor-piercing ammunition. 2025 modeling from the USGS found tungsten to be a standout vulnerability among critical minerals in its potential to harm US GDP in a hypothetical cut-off from outside supply. China continues to dominate global tungsten extraction and refining; however, the US and EU governments have been offering regulatory support to various tungsten projects in order to secure Western supply chains. Still, it will be a matter of years before supply from these new projects hits the market. | Tungsten Supply and Demand Backgrounder |
