Iran War News & Analysis
Iran War Memorandum of Understanding, Paradigm Shift in US-Europe Relations | Geopolitics Weekly
Washington and Tehran agree on a memorandum of understanding, but the Iran war is far from over; Europeans are souring on trans-Atlantic relations just as the Trump administration rotates military assets away from the continent; and Ukraine’s FP-5 Flamingo has scored an early operational success deep within Russia.
The Iran War: Attack on Thirsty Nation
Water infrastructure has emerged as a strategic target in the Iran war, signaling a possible trend for future conflicts.
What Iran’s Latest Strike Reveals About Its Evolving Deterrence Strategy
New strikes on Israel show how the line between attacks on Iran and attacks on Iran’s strategic ecosystem is becoming blurred, resulting in new risks, new calculations, and a more complex regional security environment going forward.
“Hormuz Safe”: Iran’s Fifth Layer of Maritime Sovereignty
For Washington, Iran’s “Hormuz Safe” scheme is a dangerous proposition, demonstrating that a sanctioned state can build its own maritime financial infrastructure, bypassing Lloyd's, the dollar, and US sanctions simultaneously.
Iran War Ceasefire Frays, Taiwan-China South China Sea Standoff, El Niño | Geopolitics Weekly
Pressure mounts on the Iran war ceasefire; Taiwan and China face off at a disputed atoll in the South China Sea; a supercharged El Niño threatens to compound an already dire food security outlook; and the House GOP defies President Trump on the Ukraine war.
Washington Risks Repeating Israel’s Strategic Mistake in the War of Attrition
The risk faced by the United States in the Strait of Hormuz mirrors Israel’s War of Attrition against Egypt: What presents as a contained skirmish may actually be setting the stage for a future regional war.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War Deal, DRC Ebola Outbreak, Quad Revived)
Examining the latest diplomatic efforts to hammer out a framework deal in the Iran war, signs that the Ebola outbreak in central Africa is worse than the data reflects, and the tentative return of the Quad as a player in the Indo-Pacific security architecture.
A Hard Offer to Refuse: Ukraine’s Strategic Pitch to a Middle East in Flux
Russia’s support for its Iranian ally imperils years of economic and diplomatic engagement with Gulf states. Ukraine has taken advantage of this contradiction, offering Gulf states no-strings-attached operational expertise against a weapon that Kyiv knows too well. The resulting erosion of Russia’s footprint in the Middle East will resonate for years, if not decades to come.
From Crisis to Opportunity: How China Quietly Gains from the Iran War
The Iran war is opening strategic avenues for China to strengthen its international and domestic position in a disrupted world order.
Iran Is Not Trying to Close Hormuz Anymore. It Is Trying to Own It.
While Gulf states invest in bypass pipelines to escape Iranian geography, Tehran is successfully institutionalizing permanent administrative control over the Strait through a new maritime toll authority and a "don’t-ask-don’t-tell" insurance market.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, Putin-Xi Summit, DRC Ebola Outbreak)
Examining the latest developments in the Iran war, a Putin-Xi summit just one week after President Trump came to town, and an expanding Ebola outbreak in the DRC.
Pakistan’s Structural Relevance in a Fragmenting Regional Order
Despite chronic instability, Pakistan continues to command the attention of major powers across Asia and the Gulf. Geography explains part of this relevance, but so does the state’s ability to manage overlapping external interests.
The Iran War Is Exposing BRICS’s Internal Fault Lines
The Iran war is providing a vivid demonstration of how BRICS expansion is hampering the bloc’s ability to act decisively in the security sphere.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, Trump-Xi Summit, BRICS+ Meeting)
Examining the latest developments in the Iran war, a conspicuously muted summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping, and growing pains in a recent BRICS+ meeting.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, Food Prices, Ukraine Ceasefire)
Examining attempts to secure a long-lasting peace deal in the Iran war, ominous trends in global food prices, and what a rare ceasefire could mean for the Ukraine war.
Is ‘North Koreanization’ the Only Logical Move Left for Iran?
If the Iranian regime survives, what comes next is not a choice between proxies and nukes. It is the recognition that nukes are now the only rational security option.
India’s Gulf Calculus: Can Chabahar Port Anchor a Strategic Role?
India must insert itself into the fray of the Iran war before the diplomatic space is occupied by others, and leveraging the economics of Chabahar port and the INSTC is the best way to do it.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, US-EU Tariffs, Mali Insurgency)
Examining the latest developments in the Iran war, the bottom falling out of US-EU relations, and how an expanding insurgency threatens state collapse in Mali.
Energy Dominance: How the Iran War Reveals America’s Strategic Position
The Iran war and other geopolitical ruptures are allowing Washington to reposition itself from systemic guarantor to indispensable supplier. This new role generates revenue where the previous one generated only obligation, while simultaneously converting the dependency it once protected others from into a dependency directed at Washington itself.
Iran Has Become Incompatible with Gulf Security
The most important outcome of this war is not the ceasefire; it is the emergence of a new regional baseline where Iran is no longer viewed as a manageable competitor but a persistent threat actor that must be contained.
