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Middle East
A Week of Few Surprises in the Iran War
What Happened
Notable developments in the Iran war over the past week:
- President Trump told reporters that the ceasefire was on ‘massive life support’ on May 12. The Pakistan-mediated peace process has completely broken down since President Trump dismissed the Iranian counter proposal of May 10 as ‘totally unacceptable,’ and later a ‘piece of garbage.’
- According to UKMTO, a British maritime security agency, a vessel was hijacked on May 13 while anchored off the coast of Fujairah in the UAE. The incident is consequential because: 1) it reflects a broader deterioration of the security situation in and around Hormuz, which will ripple in insurance markets and shipping fees (even after the war); 2) it marks a further erosion of UAE-Iranian ties, and just days after it was revealed that both the UAE and Saudi Arabia conducted retaliatory strikes against Iran before the ceasefire came into effect; and 3) the hijacking represents aggressive maneuvering by the IRGC, which is seeking to operationalize an expansive area of maritime control that it has only recently unilaterally declared. The zone includes waters directly off the coast of Fujairah, a major UAE port and LNG loading hub.
- A round of ministerial talks between Israel and Lebanon commenced in Washington on May 14, despite constant violations of the ceasefire, notably including Israeli raids north of the Litani River. On May 15, a 45-day extension of the ceasefire was announced; it had been set to expire on Sunday. Around 1.2 million people remain displaced in Lebanon, the majority of whom are from the south.
- The Trump-Xi summit from May 13-15 failed to produce any diplomatic breakthrough on Iran. Statements from the two sides diverged on key points such as Iran’s nuclear rights and the militarization of the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump was apparently only able to secure vague commitments that Beijing would not arm Iran (again, not confirmed in any official capacity by the Chinese side). As the meetings played out in Beijing, several Chinese vessels successfully transited the Strait following vetting by the IRGC and possibly paying tolls.
