Recent shifts in the BRICS coalition have turned international focus toward the potential expansion of the influential group. With an increasing role in global governance, the five-country bloc is considering its strategy toward enlargement, a move with profound geopolitical implications. Incorporating new members could transform the dynamics within BRICS, shifting the influence of current members and altering the organization’s core objectives.
This article, part of a series, provides a detailed analysis of the BRICS membership prospects of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iran. It evaluates the motivation behind each country’s bid and offers a forecast assessing the likelihood of incorporation of each country in the bloc.
Overview and Interests in BRICS Membership
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s position as one of the world’s top oil producers and its economic clout in the Middle East underscores its geopolitical relevance and interests in BRICS membership. The Kingdom seeks to diversify its economy and reduce its reliance on oil, a mission encapsulated in its Vision 2030 plan. Joining the BRICS could accelerate this by opening avenues for partnerships with significant importers like China and India. Additionally, BRICS membership would offer another international forum to advance its energy objectives while simultaneously solidifying its influence on the global stage by balancing relations with the West.
United Arab Emirates
The UAE’s bid for BRICS membership reflects a similar strategy and situation to Saudi Arabia. The UAE has embarked on an ambitious economic diversification agenda, investing heavily in finance, technology, renewable energy, and tourism. Inclusion in BRICS could provide the UAE with stronger economic alliances, access to markets, and exposure to cutting-edge technologies, complementing its diversification efforts. Moreover, its interest in the New Development Bank reflects the nation’s strategic pursuit of a more influential position within the world’s financial architecture as a key participant in forming an alternative to the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Iran
Iran’s interests in BRICS membership are intricately linked to its geopolitical aspirations and economic needs. Iran remains a vital player in the Middle East despite international sanctions due to its massive oil and gas reserves. Tehran is keen to realign its economic partnerships and strategic alliances. Iran views the BRICS as a platform to counterbalance Western influence, open new markets, and provide some relief from the international isolation it has faced due to sanctions. In addition, the relationship with BRICS might also assist Iran in further developing its non-oil sectors and blunting the impact of sanctions.
Membership Prospects
With its robust economy and position as a leading oil producer, Saudi Arabia is often cited as one of the most likely new members. This is underscored by its cordial relations with current BRICS countries, especially China and India, key importers of Saudi oil. The Kingdom’s inclusion would also enhance the BRICS’ energy security and increase its influence within critical export markets. Despite having its prospects overshadowed by the membership bids of Saudi Arabia and Iran, the UAE is not to be underestimated. Its willingness to join the New Development Bank (NDB) reflects a broader ambition to play a more influential role in international finance and sustain a long-term bid for membership in the bloc.
Iran’s admission is less certain in the immediate term, mainly due to its complicated international position and the current impact of sanctions. However, Iran maintains good relations with each BRICS member, suggesting a viable pathway for membership exists. China has maintained a steady diplomatic relationship with Iran and Saudi Arabia, possibly paving the way for both countries to be admitted simultaneously.
