Washington’s New Terrorist Designations Risks Derailing US-Brazil Relations
A US terrorist designation of two major Brazilian organized crime outfits is not a matter of law enforcement - it’s a geopolitical weapon, speak nothing of a compliance nightmare for regional banks, and it will reverberate across US-Brazilian relations for years to come.
Uneven Playing Field: Mexico, Iran, and the Geopolitics of the World Cup
The World Cup has afforded space for Mexico’s President Sheinbaum to play a constructive role in defusing Middle East tensions, but asymmetric realities will make it hard to repeat the trick on Cuba or the cartels.
Inflate Away the Debt? Strategic Logic and Risks of a Weak Dollar Regime
Mounting debt burdens are narrowing Washington’s fiscal space and eroding confidence in the US dollar’s reserve currency status. However, history shows that severe fiscal conditions can be reversed; and if not, the more likely outcome is a gradual erosion of confidence in USD assets, not an abrupt collapse.
Geopolitical Dimensions of Forced Labor Governance
Global labor governance is fracturing, leaving manufacturers caught between competing legal systems that, in effect, force them to choose between maintaining access to the Chinese input networks or Western markets.
Lessons Forgotten: Critical Minerals and Partisan Ideology in the U.S.
Administrations from both sides of the aisle have left US critical minerals supply chains highly vulnerable amid a return to great power politics. But stockpiling initiatives like ‘Project Vault’ suggest that Washington is beginning to remember the old truism that economics and geopolitics are inseparable.
Geological Maps: Key to Securing Critical Minerals Supply Chains
Geological mapping remains a dangerously neglected block in building Western critical mineral supply chains, hobbling the West’s ability to compete in crucial emerging markets. The USGS has the power to change that.
New Submarines, No Mission: The Doctrine Gap Behind Canada’s Procurement Debate
As it looks to replace Canada’s aging fleet of Victoria-class submarines, Ottawa must answer doctrinal questions before committing to a supplier. If not, the blanks will be ultimately filled in by operational constraints that delineate RCN capacity for decades to come.
Venezuela’s Real Export May Be Authoritarian Survival
The surprising durability of Venezuelan Chavismo hints at a new kind of authoritarianism, one that relies less on individual charisma and more on layered networks of elites who all stand to lose from change. And it’s not just Venezuela where this is happening.
Venezuela Redux? US Maximum Pressure on Cuba
Cuba continues to loom large in the Trump administration’s strategic planning. But now months into a maximum pressure campaign intended to throttle the island’s economy, regime change remains elusive as ever.
Credibility Index: A Data-Driven Approach to Assessing the Resilience of US Power
Structural indicators of hegemony like military, institutional, and financial capacity suggest that the US global power is far more likely to decline than collapse outright.
The British Monarch Is Rediscovering Their Voice in Foreign Parliaments
Recent speeches by King Charles III in the US and Italy illustrate how non-elected heads of state are regaining a non-marginal role in the processes of legitimizing major foreign and security policy choices.
A Gatekeeper in Washington: The Limits to Canada’s EU Defense Pivot
After decades of near total dependence on the United States, Canada is now looking to Brussels to diversify its defense relationships. But decades of supply chain and regulatory integration with the US defense industry will limit what’s achievable in the short-term.
Able Archer 83 and the Dual-Contingency Trap: Lessons in Effective Deterrence
Able Archer 83 showed how a routine Cold War military exercise could escalate toward nuclear confrontation. The US, Japan, and South Korea can learn from it when preparing for a dual contingency in the Indo-Pacific.
Win-Win for Defense Industry? Canada Joins EU SAFE Instrument
The involvement of Canadian defense firms in EU’s SAFE instrument could serve as a genuine bridge between two defense industrial bases that have historically operated in separate ecosystems. But the path to Brussels is paved with grand plans that never came to fruition.
South Korean Sub Docks in Canada as Decision Looms on RCN Procurement
A port visit at CFB Esquimalt by a Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarine is meant to demonstrate strategic and industrial benefits of the Hanhwa Ocean bid ahead of Ottawa’s final decision on who will supply the next generation of RCN submarines.
Canada in Europe? Geography, Law, and the Prospects of EU Membership
The question of “could Canada join the European Union?” has shifted from pure fantasy to speculative but serious legal and political debate. This article explores the legal and practical dimensions surrounding a hypothetical EU membership bid from Canada.
Wexit: Assessing the Political Risk of Alberta Separatism
Rising poll numbers, legislative easing of referendum thresholds, and US engagement show that Alberta’s independence movement is more serious than many assume.
Divine Will, Earthly Consequence: The Holy War Narrative Inside the Pentagon
The invocation of Christian iconography in US framing of the Iran war is not some trivial rhetorical shift or meaningless theater for domestic audiences. Rather, it represents a highly consequential shift in the language of US war-making, one that will resonate across a range of US strategic interests for years to come.
Project Vault and the New Era of US Strategic Mineral Stockpiling
President Trump’s ‘Project Vault’ echoes strategic concerns that gave rise to the National Defense Stockpile during the Cold War era, but this new US critical mineral stockpiling effort must navigate a profoundly different policy context and global market.
Unstable Truce: Short- and Long-term Risks to the Iran Ceasefire
The Iran ceasefire pulled the global economy back from the brink, but the reprieve may not last for long.
