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Middle East

No End in Sight as US-Israel Iran War Enters Third Week

What Happened

Some notable events surrounding the US-Israel Iran war over the past week:

  • CENTCOM announced on Saturday that 90 Iranian military installations had been targeted on Kharg Island, noting that oil infrastructure was left intact. Located in the Persian Gulf, Kharg island handles around 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
  • 2,500 US Marines and three warships have been dispatched to the Middle East. There has been speculation that these marines may be used to occupy and secure Kharg Island.
  • Two Indian LNG tankers traversed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. A Turkish oil tanker was allowed safe passage on Friday.
  • On Saturday, President Trump called on the militaries of China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz in a tweet on Truth Social. On Sunday, he threatened a ‘very bad’ future for NATO if member states didn’t get involved in securing the Strait.
  • Western states have not been responding positively. As a spokesperson for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz bluntly put it: “This war has nothing to do with NATO… NATO is a defensive alliance.” UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stressed that the UK wouldn’t be drawn into a wider war. Greece has also been unequivocal in rejecting any involvement.
  • FT reports that France and Italy are in talks with Iran to allow safe passage for their tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iranian attacks on the UAE continued through Monday, producing new flight disruptions. A UAE oil terminal at Fujairah was hit on Sunday.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant told CNBC that the US was allowing Iranian tankers to traverse the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that the Strait of Hormuz is open, but ‘closed to our enemies.’

Why It Matters

Oil prices, food prices, cost-of-living and political consequences across the world, regime stability across the MENA, the viability of US military power – the stakes involved in the Iran war are now clear for all parties involved, including a Trump administration that once seemed blasé about embarking on the war.

A few takeaways from this week:

  • The erosion of Iran’s offensive capacity is starting to reflect in fewer strikes on neighboring countries. According to the US government, ballistic missile attacks are down 90% and drone attacks 83%. But as a great piece at War on the Rocks rightfully points out, capacity should not be conflated with behavior. The bar is still low for the Iranian regime being able to disrupt energy supply across the Persian Gulf.
  • The Trump administration is looking to socialize war costs. Faced with the dire arithmetic of modern war-fighting (an estimated $16.5 billion through Day 12), Washington is searching for allies. But having not done the hard work of building an initial strategic case for the war, it’s unlikely that other states will opt in on the fiscal and political costs involved. The idea of sailing ships through the Strait of Hormuz – something that even the US Navy is unwilling to do due to the risks involved – will continue to be a total non-starter.