Geopolitics Weekly analyzes emerging geopolitical trends around the world, distilling the cacophony of global events into one easy reader. It lands in the inbox of Geopolitical Monitor subscribers every week.
Europe
Russia Pledges ‘Uninterrupted’ Fuel Supply to India
What Happened
Russia President Vladimir Putin met with Prime Minister Modi last week, in a high-profile state visit that was conspicuous in its celebration of enduring India-Russia ties.
Why It Matters
- A Bilateral Showcase. In emphasizing the strong personal relationship between the two leaders, the summit sent key signals for both sides. For Modi, it demonstrated that his government remains defiant in the face of US demands to halt purchases of Russian oil. India was hit with an additional 25% US tariff in August, bringing the current overall rate to 50%. Nevertheless, New Delhi has continued to purchase Russian oil, albeit at dwindling levels in recent months. For Putin, the India visit – which coincided with peace talks to end the Ukraine war – was an opportunity to underscore the West’s failure to isolate Russia in the Global South.
- Lose-Lose Diplomacy. If the Trump administration were searching for a silver lining in its effort to split India from the Russian camp, it would be the absence of any strategic announcements and the strictly cultural-trade focus of the summit. However, it’s now abundantly clear that this policy has failed to achieve its primary objective. Prime Minister Modi would be sacrificing his own political credibility by complying with President Trump’s original demands. Moreover, the reason that Indian oil purchases are now trending down is the Lukoil-Rosneft sanctions of late October, not the supplemental tariff that came into effect in August. In other words, the same result could have been produced without having to destroy the foundations of a potential renaissance in US-India relations.
US Sets 2027 Deadline for Europe Stepping Up in NATO
What Happened
US officials have been telling diplomats that the bulk of NATO’s European defense must run through European capitals by 2027, as per reporting from Reuters.
