Central Bank Policy News & Analysis

Geopolitics Weekly (US-Europe NATO Frictions, Japan Bond Yields, DRC Fighting)

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This week we examine a conspicuously warm visit by President Putin to New Delhi, Washington’s new and impractically hard line on European operations under NATO, a setback for a Trump-endorsed peace plan in Eastern DRC, and warning signs in Japanese bond markets that could spill over into global financial flows.

Geopolitics Weekly (China Framework, Carney-Xi Meeting, BOJ Decision)

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This week we cover a new trade framework between China and the United States, a key meeting at the sidelines of APEC between Canada’s prime minister and Xi Jinping, a highly anticipated rate decision from the Bank of Japan, and early indications that Trump’s new round of Russia sanctions are having their intended effect.

Monetary Warfare: Israel’s Decision to Proscribe Iran’s Central Bank

cc Bank Markazi (the Central Bank of Iran) on Mirdamad Boulevard, Tehran, Iran., cc Ensie & Matthias, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/ensiematthias/231056654

While Israel’s unprecedented move to classify the Central Bank of Iran as a terrorist organization may prove an effective means of increasing pressure on Tehran, it also carries significant risks and possible unintended consequences.

Stimulus Bets Send China Stock Markets into Frenzy

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China stock markets are experiencing wild swings as traders place bets on new stimulus announcements from Beijing. Yet little has changed regarding the fundamentals of the Chinese economy.

Debt & Downturn Complicate ECB’s Inflation Fight

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Though recent data suggests that inflation may have peaked, euro zone economies are hardly out of the woods yet.

UK Currency Crisis: Toward Emerging Market Status

cc Flickr judy dean, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/peterscherub/51852664447/in/photolist-2n13sBZ-2mZU7SE-9JspXi-eaRSrx-eaRScK-eaRTZP-21qWiEq-eaRTJp-HmF6Em-2nPmaWU-2jTGkaN-2jTGks1-TwLceZ-2jJ4Cos-2jDtM41-4icUAV-HwRKjA-p7qXuw-pR3SSQ-67nNta-p7rbgd-5hDM45-p5qLou-9nScnu-2mZFNsg-6SKbZG-6SKbQG-wKhGwb-2nPnKjx-8puuqx-YB5wRu-GZBaWn-H6E6Sc-7e9ARv-a9idKB-w7KHtd-XLWD8G-owqRxZ-GZB3cz-KuvPE2-wYQr2C-8putCp-H3G2PY-8pxDRo-8puwXg-tiW4sJ-gte8q9-8purRn-gfgyLd-8usFao

If an emerging market is characterized by high vulnerability to the whims of hot money flows, recent events suggest that’s exactly where the United Kingdom is headed.

The Fed Hike Heard around the World

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Expect the Fed’s recent 75-basis-point hike to reverberate in central banks around the world, with particularly high stakes for emerging markets.

Plot Thickens for ECB: Inflation Remains Strong in Spain and Germany

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The latest data suggests that price increases have yet to peak in Europe.

Euro Zone Inflation Shows No Signs of Slowing

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ECB head Christine Legarde is maintaining a dovish line despite strong October inflation numbers in major euro zone economies.

Emerging Markets Hike Rates to Get Ahead of Inflation

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Though central banks have approached the problem with different levels of urgency.

Stakes High as Emerging Markets Await Fed Taper Plans

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Capital flight, inflation, and debt shocks are the risks facing emerging markets as the Federal Reserve plots a course out of monetary stimulus.

ECB Moves to Scale Back COVID-Era Bond Buying

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Citing improved growth and rising inflation, the ECB moved to scale back its bond purchases. But don’t call it a taper.

Russia Central Bank Sounds Alarm on Inflation

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The Bank of Russia’s latest monetary policy forecast raises a novel possibility: What if the present inflationary trend isn’t temporary at all?

US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Exceeds $8 Trillion Mark

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The Federal Reserve balance sheet just hit $8.1 trillion, roughly the size of the economies of Japan and Germany combined.

ECB Sets New Inflation Target in Rare Strategy Overhaul

cc Flickr Valsts kanceleja/ State Cha, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Either the target or the loose monetary policy had to go. In the end it was the target.

Canada CPI Inflation Hits 10-Year High in May 2021

cc Flickr Carol VanHook, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/librariesrock/39975858562/in/photolist-23UwJ1J-5k5dEB-jgJagx-qMBmnm-FPsCUy-7S3bUw-c3Ur-5eQagx-c3TY-8jKDSV-8hTvzY-234Cszo-22SCRch-awxy57-9xgV8b-7iHs7E-eGs3Kq-KEurr-5fX6Gx-eHhnpa-7Kc1rf-59hNE4-6zXNZh-MyaSu-eHorCy-cL1Hh-ehM2dn-Gbinad-ehSHvj-7A3uRm-7M38BW-ehM1y8-ehSJcL-ehSHNm-ehM1sv-ehLZa4-ehLZKc-ehLYxD-8mDcv3-ehSJPf-ehSKd3-7jiJSq-ehSKYq-ehM1eD-ehLXHK-98WRWA-ehSHU3-7jiJDj-ehSKjf-ehSKx5

May CPI numbers are making it harder to discount inflation as COVID-related economic distortion.

Euro Zone Inflation Surprises ahead of Key ECB Meeting

cc Flickr Peter Linke, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/peter-linke/29820759761/in/photolist-MrabWn-wavg8H-4hKCUQ-7H7VZ4-6NaSV8-dUyueq-bm86MH-63fbnP-63fcoc-7C6GMj-7C6G3A-q4fdp-5Yb76K-5YfmbN-5Yb6EM-tdFoF8-5Yb7gn-5Yb6sB-5YfkSQ-5Yb6zD-2jy3vW1-5N3kLX-2jkVHS2-2jy2srr-wpG5rd-a31XZW-9VE5UJ-6NqC2e-LgQzDs-7c2kMg-23StCHW-265AxDN-eEa2d6-a31W2C-27uQJPy-bHJqcF-az3Y5M-dpcphS-2aKUmfg-EV99FE-d51p2h-aXnUDX-96NMxG-7qv1yv-ZNGnPp-6owdoL-bXno5x-63js6U-j1gEmS-j1gHCm

Is recent inflation temporary or not? This is what ECB governors will grapple with when they meet in Frankfurt next week.

Fed Tries to Calm Bond Yield Jitters

cc Flickr, modified, Federalreserve, https://flickr.com/photos/federalreserve/46835032445/in/photolist-2eBMAv6-2a561Dv-GbqKvY-2d29HSX-2g9MRD3-2bahHwD-2hq7WvD-2dETXFR-2emDMrp-2ggT2WF-2jr9gWX-25ha66V-2ht6Cft-QRuQoB-2df5bfx-Pg344T-2bV9RiW-2dfn9ER-2hhpakB-KJVWsT-2gMaoJr-2jaHwZi-2j4jT5p-28bsnfV-2fDiTke-RGFomF-25Q6dNy-2dfn8BP-2dfn99R-2c9opBj-2c9oqbW-L5gxAY-26A9DAm-2cWN66W-Qq734C-2bV9PuA-2cWN7dW-QTpVkj-2jHcYFC-2khxMc7-QTpT83-QTpRMN-2cWN8SY-Pg31Fr-2jFueN6-2bV9LAu-2kG7umE-28hER8w-ydjKHL-eLfkfk

Federal Reserve officials gather this week for one of the most important central bank meetings in recent history.

Inflation Whispers Spook Global Bond Markets

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Do spiking yield curves across the developed world harken the end of COVID-era monetary stimulus?

Federal Reserve Fails to Calm Jittery US Equity Markets

cc FLickr Federalreserve, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/federalreserve/49526374907/in/photolist-2istBMD-2gvG3CK-2hQJ26e-2hQFqhx-2hQJ3kJ-288Z3rm-2hQFuGz-2hQFpit-2hq8EXk-2iVEFmj-D1wyRo-2jaDjRh-2k3M34D-2jaEzhA-JfUQcA-ZZBY8V-2dSi3vH-2aq2AAb-2hQSuie-W3qAGD-2hCMRCC-2eBMAKV-2dQHr2Y-2jaACF8-2jr9gYR-2hY78pq-2hq8FMB-2iAgwa7-2jaCZjt-23DPFGo-2imErJc-2in2hau-2eBMAv6-GbqKvY-2g9MRD3-2d29HSX-2jr9gWX-2hq7WvD-2ht6Cft-2hQKkkV-25jqEwE-2a561Dv-2bahHwD-2dETXFR-2emDMrp-2ggT2WF-25ha66V-QRuQoB-2df5bfx-Pg344T

Powell’s recent comments reflect how central bank interventions have been normalized by the market, making the Fed’s eventual exit an exceedingly delicate affair.

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