Geopolitical Monitor

Global Forecast (9-25-2018)


Sweden’s far-right might sneak into the Riksdag via the back door, Brexit gut-check time in the United Kingdom, and new hope for US-Turkey relations.

FLASH: OPEC Goes Rogue on Trump, Keeps Production Steady

Oil_platform_P-51_(Brazil), cc Divulgação Petrobras / ABr, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_platform_P-51_(Brazil).jpg

President Trump’s cozy relationship with Saudi Arabia failed to translate into a production hike from OPEC+ over the weekend.

China-India Relations: A Pearl Is Unstrung in the Maldives

Ibrahim_Mohamed_Solih_-_Maldives2, cc Wikicommons, modified, Asimoosa, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ibrahim_Mohamed_Solih_-_Maldives2.jpg

Opposition politician Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has won the Maldives’ general election, putting China’s latest foray into India’s backyard in jeopardy.

Emerging Markets: Turkey Shifts to Austerity, But Will It Be Enough?

ErdoganKrem, cc Kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55011

Finance Minister Berat Albayrak unveils a new austerity drive, but the plan does nothing about the mountain of toxic debt in Turkey’s private sector.

EU Salzburg Summit Sinks May’s Latest Brexit Plan

May, cc Flcikr PRO EU2017EE Estonian Presidency, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

The demise of Prime Minister May’s Chequers plan increases the odds of a hard Brexit.

Trump Ramps up Pressure in US-China Trade War

XiKre, cc Kremlin.ru, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56046

President Trump has slapped $200 billion in new tariffs on Chinese goods, with new retaliations from Beijing sure to follow.

FLASH: Turkey Central Bank Raises Interest Rates to Stem Lira Collapse

5000_TL_obverse, Central Bank of Turkey, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:5000_TL_obverse.jpg, public domain

Is Turkey’s central bank truly independent, or has the “enemy of interest rates” finally relented?

Backgrounder: Brazil Elections 2018

Sessão Extraordinária Plenário Ulysses Guimarães Dep. Jair Bolsonaro Foto: Beto Oliveira 30.06.2011 - https://www.camara.leg.br/internet/bancoimagem/banco/2011/06/2011063018359_20110630_018LP_LC.jpg - modified - Beto Oliveira / Câmara dos Deputados

With a divided presidential field, anything can happen in Brazil’s upcoming presidential elections – and that’s what has investors worried.

Backgrounder: Nord Stream 2


Key background information on Nord Stream 2, the energy pipeline that was center stage at this week’s NATO summit.

Global Forecast (9-11-2018)


The far-right creates political deadlock in Sweden, anti-pension reform rallies flare up again in Russia, and new rumblings of a second US-DPRK summit.

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