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Geopolitical Monitor

Can Putin Pull Belarus into Ukraine War?

cc https://www.flickr.com/photos/adam_jones/26938133533, modified, cc Adam Jones

Lukashenko has avoided direct involvement so far, but the screws are tightening as Russian losses mount in eastern Ukraine.

Debt & Downturn Complicate ECB’s Inflation Fight

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Though recent data suggests that inflation may have peaked, euro zone economies are hardly out of the woods yet.

China Covid Protests: Xi’s Largest Test Yet

cc Date20221127, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&limit=500&offset=0&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns14=1&sort=last_edit_desc&sort=last_edit_desc&search=china+protest#/media/File:%E8%A5%BF%E5%8D%97%E4%BA%A4%E9%80%9A%E5%A4%A7%E5%AD%A6%E5%AD%A6%E7%94%9F%E6%82%BC%E5%BF%B5%E4%B9%8C%E9%B2%81%E6%9C%A8%E9%BD%90%E7%81%AB%E7%81%BE%E9%80%9D%E8%80%85_01.jpg

If the past is any guide, the hammer is about to come down on China’s Covid protestors.

Can US Corporate Debt Markets Weather a Recession?

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With a recession looming on the horizon, the COVID-era grace period of cheap money has nearly run its course.

Russia’s Loss is Turkey’s Gain in Syria

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Syria is the next theater where Russia’s diminished geopolitical clout could become evident as Turkey moves to implement a ‘safe zone’ along the northern border.

Beijing Throws a Lifeline to Beleaguered Real Estate Developers

cc Flickr Ben, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/bmgallery/141394398/in/photolist-89owLD-89rNQ7-bo36HS-cjaz73-2kjbWi6-eiYt5M-owqC77-daGENu-21nPqeD-daGJ5x-9hG7TE-8HBnfA-9hGaU1-GrqXir-Df94Rj-9hG9s3-Z6DSvk-4tXDUA-5JkxDS-iBXSw-65FAJi-8Rg5VR-65FzxV-DS9Giw-cM6Lm-8HyeQD-dyXjR4-9hGaaL-iBXZx-r7ZV8U-8RjdTW-65KVfd-8RjeC1-2214xai-duFCs-SUfGbz-RW2Mvw-RAHzSg-4PVyV5-a5Yivi-5pJ8g1-oeSXSf-bYqsfG-SvQXC8-RndvGf-ReaBa5-Sh48qG-5X5sqP-x6Wyk6-iBXDs

Amid worsening economic indicators, Beijing has partially reversed its attempt to reign in real estate excess. But is the damage already done?

Wheat Prices Dip as Russia Returns to Ukraine Deal

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As posturing goes, Russia’s threat to leave the Ukraine wheat deal was abnormally short-lived. What changed the Kremlin’s mind?

Brazil: Assessing President Lula Redux

cc Flickr PT - Partido dos Trabalhado, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/partidodostrabalhadores/35093490503/in/photolist-Vt6j66-WuZ6f6-o8khJi-WGBe6x-WuZ7sr-JEASbt-8PCDpW-WD1Ja3-8PCDso-8PUYn3-Vqo4tq-Vqo5Nj-WD1K9s-WuZ8Sk-8PCDub-WuZ8HT-WuZ9vV-Vqo5Af-Vqo4E7-8PCDoS-8PCDqW-w9QyDN-W7iGAh-9ZP68f-8PCDnu-UJjXyn-Vqo5RA-queVsN-WD1Jr5-WuZ5kF-Vqo2KA-Vqo3oQ-WuZ7VF-Vqo1f1-WuZ6v6-Vqo35d-Vqo42J-WD1MnL-Vt6kdM-KzNgEh-WuZ9BB-KzNfgL-Vqo2a7-LngwzS-KzNgPq-LwP1nn-KzYTXr-LngB2Y-KzYSNH-KzYSu6

Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva defeated rival Jair Bolsonaro in a much closer contest than many were predicting. What can we expect from Lula’s third term in office?

Political Reform Hopes Collapse in Chad

President Idriss Deby, the long-serving ruler of Chad and father to the current president, pictured in 2014; modified; cc Foreign and Commonwealth Office, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&limit=500&offset=0&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns14=1&search=president+deby#/media/File:London_Conference_on_The_Illegal_Wildlife_Trade_(12499088055).jpg

Dozens of protester deaths marks the end of a brief period of hope for democratic transition in Chad.

The Xi Era Is Just Getting Started in China

cc COP PARIS, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/cop21/23049751989

The 20th Congress has solidified Xi Jinping’s position as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.

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