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Geopolitical Monitor

Stakes High as Emerging Markets Await Fed Taper Plans

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Capital flight, inflation, and debt shocks are the risks facing emerging markets as the Federal Reserve plots a course out of monetary stimulus.

Sudan: Post-Revolution Political Order under Strain

English: Sudanese soldeirs stand guard around armoured military vehicles as demonstrators continue their protest against the regime near the army headquarters in the Sudanese capital Khartoum, cc Agence France-Presse, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sudan_coup_military_afp.jpg

An apparent coup attempt illustrates ongoing challenges faced by the civilian-military transitional order in realizing the promise of Sudan’s 2019 revolution.

Is the Post-COVID Party Over for Iron Ore Prices?

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Iron ore prices are now down approximately 57% from their May highs, with the sell-off accelerating heading out of the weekend. At one point on Monday, prices had shed another 11.5% in Singapore trading…

Global Forecast (9-20-2021)

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France withdraws ambassadors over AUKUS, Canada heads to the polls, and the Federal Reserve prepares to show its hand on bond tapering.

Timeline: The Downward Spiral of China-Australia Relations

Prime Minister and Andrew Robb signing the Free Trade Agreement with Chinese President Xi and Minister for Commerce Gao Hucheng., 2014, cc Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade website – www.dfat.gov.au, modified 0 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Abbott_and_Robb_signing_the_Free_Trade_Agreement_with_Chinese_President_Xi_and_Minister_for_Commerce_Gao_Hucheng_November_2014.jpg

Chronicling the events that led to the present low point in China-Australia relations.

Europe’s Energy Crisis Goes from Bad to Worse

cc ruben van eijk, Flickr, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/073/3163309842

Record-high natural gas prices have European consumers hoping for a mild winter.

Is the Australia-UK-USA Trilateral Security Partnership (AUKUS) a Gamechanger?

Pictured is HMS Ambush returning to HMNB Clyde in Scotland., cc Flickr Defence Images, https://flickr.com/photos/defenceimages/9522632603/in/photolist-fvtYUK-2jvDiab-fmb3EE-2ki7bRg-2hLXvyq-2kYn1ir-vWMtJQ-2krQA2g-Xda2ms-2gVEfRr-2dvRio9-2bxdsxh-2kZSKx7-2gnGJiZ-i1Cji-2grCbXH-divhFt-ek2ELw-2grCcix-2gnH86i-8mkqff-fmb3Dj-7CPPUd-hKchQ-2gUoQq4-dkxhD8-divhBV-2iukW5U-6sw9G1-5yypmV-dF5FSj-dEZgsr-dF5FPJ-SWdZuE-evC8Ec-hJEvb4-HHdBMr-divgvQ-divhJn-fpm5Po-divgzj-6z8nQp-ijchoS-wey27c-fp6Q3Z-rDjWBr-D3FtQV-2jddQbZ-2jx7D5g-2m3g9Mk

The pact is notable in its shift from style to substance in US-led efforts to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.

Evergrande: China’s Property Goliath Teeters on the Brink

Tianjin Skyline in 2008 cc Flickr Jakob Montrasio, https://flickr.com/photos/yakobusan/2363688612/in/photolist-or5QKs-4ASwgW-jsPxZm-9mqSr4-5p1eV4-5px8HG-qeK7Q6-jRG1hi-cfSysm-avFEWz-gn4sq7-nF9keS-7QGK-apBigU-e7s8ma-nkFxDm-GkXecR-nkFEPv-nkFn3k-MHcYC1-osM6DE-bUT8n4-dzJz2q-9ZHKC8-8Mk6Rd-rnKVP2-XWH1yv-rnEddr-agoRz8-oSXUEZ-oAtroj-nkFCRT-duM8s9-DS9SS7-MDuhXW-qqTdid-r6jFG9-Mfx5Y1-H7prF9-MfxcVC-r6iM77-2dQb9KS-Wfunid-orxeSV-WVcV4J-ottDJg-DS9Giw-Xsevz5-nBWZzA-owkMvgmodified,

What does too-big-to-fail with Chinese characteristics look like? Evergrande could be just that.

Nickel Prices Recover, Seek Out New Highs

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Supply concerns seem to be trumping fears of technological disruptions, with an EV-driven demand boom looming on the horizon.

Global Forecast (9-13-2021)

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Russian elections, a US angle on the Guinean coup, and a financial crisis in Sri Lanka.

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