Geopolitical Monitor

US Inflation Hits 40-Year High


The result heaps further pressure on the Fed to move up the schedule of its rate normalization.

Outlook 2022: Oil Markets


News of oil’s death may well be premature.

Global Forecast (1-10-2022)


No ‘second-class’ members in NATO, CSTO troops sent to Kazakhstan, and inflation shows no signs of fading in the euro zone.

Timeline: The Downward Spiral of China-Australia Relations

Prime Minister and Andrew Robb signing the Free Trade Agreement with Chinese President Xi and Minister for Commerce Gao Hucheng., 2014, cc Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade website – www.dfat.gov.au, modified 0 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Abbott_and_Robb_signing_the_Free_Trade_Agreement_with_Chinese_President_Xi_and_Minister_for_Commerce_Gao_Hucheng_November_2014.jpg

Chronicling the events that led to the present low point in China-Australia relations.

Backgrounder: China’s Military Modernization Comes of Age

cc Flickr emperornie, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/77326563@N06/14110452040/

The latest defense department report on China’s military modernization suggests that Beijing is rapidly closing the capability gap with Western peers, particularly with regard to air, sea, and missile forces.

Outlook 2022: A Russian Invasion of Ukraine?


2022 is projecting to be a year when something gives in the Ukraine civil war, one way or another.

China Seeks Atlantic Ocean Military Base

cc Official U.S. Navy Page, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/usnavy/51269312997/in/photolist-2m7uCyn-2mKMtYg-Sygk7t-2meN86g-2mbrBvf-2jh6aSN-2m1avpY-2jeQQg5-2m6wCz6-2mEQWCx-2iSQ3Cw-2jcHVq4-2mKtxVK-SjNABw-EyjgcS-2jdjoNF-2muYezm-JLhJ7L-Sygi1V-Kr2tLg-eSAQSB-2iGZfBD-eSN8ou-2j6biw1-2ksGCQN-2gn1Zoi-2kc4YeS-2mEtFsv-eznud9-2mnmRSv-rTHqtu-cC9BKs-eSAQX4-2kA8gmq-eSNgHN-2hDbcqD-eSN8od-2mkZLVi-SLomfN-2hMWoDK-2i5y5oJ-2kzCzRc-eSN7Ab-eSAFTk-eSN8fu-eSNgG1-2m19nmo-rev9En-2mMbZa7-2iTbuMf

US efforts to rebuff China’s geopolitical advances in Equatorial Guinea are highly reminiscent of the Cold War.

Outlook 2022: China’s Economy


Beijing is facing a confluence of several economic crises in the year ahead. Will it stay its recent course of economic rebalancing, or revert to old policy playbooks?

Outlook 2022: COVID-19 & Global Debt


An omicron-fueled global resurgence of COVID-19 is a threat to stretched balance sheets around the world, and the risk is particularly pronounced in developing countries.

Global Forecast (12-20-2021)


Russia gives NATO a list of security demands, omicron continues to spread around the world, Addis Ababa celebrates a victory in the Ethiopian civil war, and Chile votes in a polarizing presidential run-off.

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