Geopolitical Monitor

Sovereign Bloat in EU Banking: Prelude to the Next Crisis?

cc Flickr European Parliament, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/european_parliament/49521491927/in/photolist-2is3Afk-2is3Agn-nVHu6U-aH4uTR-nCtjQX-TSCoMd-dzKeb5-nKXh93-GohX1U-Cge7cA-dbZWui-dZanum-dZ8tmo-djxDt1-rDi8mU-bBU3Fi-7c2kMg-8GDLRh-2is3Ae8-fja5GW-rrCqYe-irM13-fqkwQU-fiUKHr-fmwVXv-bhodyD-p6rFyE-eA1opH-pKNGk4-cGabNL-fdGYyF-YcGWv3-BK6wbz-p6umXV-pW8nCz-fqos6V-p6rFxC-EV99FE-HA2DxN-p6rFDj-nP8fME-dfGo5L-HY1ff-WZYFSG-nBkAev-oTh45P-qxkfyb-De1bYp-4KCTNj-dsa9UA

Euro zone banks are hoovering up sovereign debt, and in doing so risk a repeat the ‘death loop’ that nearly tore the monetary union apart in the 2010s.

Middle East Gamechanger? Gauging the China-Iran Deal

cc Official website of Ali Khamenei, Supreme leader of Iran, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ali_Khamenei_receives_Xi_Jinping_in_his_house_(7).jpg

Though short on details, the recent China-Iran deal could one day be looked back on as a seminal moment in the geopolitics of the Middle East.

Impeachment, Apathy, and COVID-19 Loom over Peru Polls

cc Flickr Congreso de la República del Perú, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Peru’s presidency is up for grabs in what projects to be one of the most competitive elections in recent memory. But governing won’t be easy for the winner.

Global Forecast (4-6-2021)


Palma is re-taken by security forces in Mozambique, Peruvians head to the polls, and Russian troops amass near the Ukrainian border.

ISIS-Linked Insurgency Opens a Vacuum in Northeast Mozambique

PEMBA, Mozambique (Jan. 29, 2019) General of the Army Lazaro Menete, chief of staff of the Mozambican Armed Forces, speaks during the opening ceremony of exercise Cutlass Express 2019 in Pemba, Mozambique, Jan. 29, 2019. Cutlass Express is designed to improve regional cooperation, maritime domain awareness and information sharing practices to increase capabilities between the U.S., East African and Western Indian Ocean nations to counter illicit maritime activity. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Kyle Steckler/Released), cc Flickr modified, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa/U.S. 6th Fleet, https://flickr.com/photos/cne-cna-c6f/46004465185/in/photolist-2kNQP1b-2h7cNbz-8uNQKo-7WrvjL-9ptDm4-9s7aPC-8uNPNs-8uKMLK-8EqYsv-8EqYkH-8Eu8zd-7Wofq6-8uNPLJ-8vgTKg-8uKLGt-6tCvpF-8uNR1o-8uKMkt-8uKN4r-8uKLDc-8ygV66-8yjYqJ-8uKKTx-8uKNiK-nSVh8c-8uKLt6-8uNQYG-8uNQH9-8uKNav-8uNPk3-8uKLBc-9phppg-8uNPX9-9s4bCX-9s4bR8-9s4bzR-8ygUZV-cXEWDW-cXEWpm-RhoVPm-cXEWdo-cXEVVL-2d6fUpB-2d6fUJe-cXEW6b-cXEW2o-cXEWjm-cXEVSu-9qhgiS

Last week’s brutal Palma attack is fueling concerns of state collapse in northeast Mozambique.

COVID-19: New Waves Emerge in Europe and North America

English: Lieutenant (junior grade) Natasha McClinton, a surgical nurse, prepares a patient for a procedure in the intensive care unit aboard the U.S. the hospital ship USNS Comfort. The ship cares for critical and non critical patients without regard to their COVID-19 status. Comfort is working with Javits New York Medical Station as an integrated system to relieve the New York City medical system, in support of U.S. Northern Command's Defense Support of Civil Authorities as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic., https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:COVID-19_Nurse.jpg

Early vaccine euphoria is fading as policymakers grapple with resurgent COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe and North America.

Global Forecast (3-30-2021)


Past is precedent in Israeli election, Secretary-General Guterres warns on the financial stability of the developing world, and troubling signs of a civil war in Myanmar.

Xinjiang Sanctions Put Western Unity to the Early Test

cc Flickr GPA Photo Archive, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/iip-photo-archive/51024344951/in/photolist-2kJR76n-2kJRxW6-2kJd2GU-2kwdwsK-22VXnjN-HCaCpV-2kGVCW1-2kK7Hv5-2kLZe1o-zbmE9j-2kGtPoy-2kGur23-2kGqfsm-2kNtMwy-2kGqfxw-2kGurXm-2kGqfVa-5CPyTW-JHRpgD-KYrPP-smHW1G-LmUwb-LmU6j-Ln6UV-2kGtQew-2kGtQJz-2kGqgk3-BP5ii7-2kGqgrq-2kGqgBa-2kGurCy-7MCAKs-2kGtQLP-vMN7jV-GdBYiu-apNnXD-2kGqgFd-2kGtQQG-uQVR8e-Ln6St-2iPaK8a-iZdSSq-zqDdZS-aRSwhk-7EVRS7-vNaYnV-iZdSdj-7HCgLL-iZdPrh-vNaY6H

Biden’s vision of Western unity was always going to face some hard economic realities. Coordinated sanctions on Xinjiang stand as an early test.

Backgrounder: The People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM)

cc Flickr Yves Cosentino, modified,

Exploring the history, composition, and tactics of the ‘little blue men’ of China’s littoral waters – the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia.

CBO Paints Grim Picture of Long-term US Debt Outlook

cc Flickr Ben Schumin,modified, https://flickr.com/photos/schuminweb/50056569146/in/photolist-2jgk14C-2ks3aXw-gQipVt-FqZhsF-dPTEzJ-SXFiXv-Cs3Jvm-2iD1YUC-9kQqTC-JpgAgm-EQgXqh-nVsA5T-5TxpeN-21ZJQm-EQgXyd-Hd2wbZ-2gMjcYa-22og9FJ-kpMuv-qLohS5-r3Njfe-nVsBwc-ivP5hZ-oW6q-495BHR-nVs4QM-259bYea-kmbGpP-cr1ze5-Dtd2fC-bgAdx-mUsRBp-Efv737-JF9hST-em1YzC-kmaHEP-VGfpXF-kmde6s-eM7Ne4-eMJh6X-9SKuMC-9NXpGw-EQgXxb-EvsroX-ehCMp7-5LfRPd-5H9PEr-iNbnK4-DSrM6e-ciEcUb

A recent Congressional Budget Office report could play killjoy to the Biden administration’s stimulus efforts.

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