Toward the end of July, the Trump administration revealed a plan for a relocation of US military forces from Germany to other European countries or the continental United States. According to President Trump, the decision was meant to chastise Germany for being ‘delinquent’ over the failure to reach the threshold of 2% of GDP on defense spending; but Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and other top officials explained the move as part of a strategic repositioning meant to ensure better combat readiness, command coherence and responsiveness in order to enhance NATO’s deterrence. Even though a similar measure had already been raised in 2019, the announcement still came as a shock for Germany and other NATO members, with lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic denouncing the plan as a move that benefits Russia and weakens the Alliance. But implementing the plan will require time, and while it will surely affect America’s and NATO’s capabilities, it will hardly compromise its overall deterrence potential.
Analysis
Moving out of Germany
During a brief on 29th July 2020, Defense Secretary Esper outlined the general objectives of the plan and provided details on which units were going to be relocated out of Germany. Around 12,000 troops will be withdrawn in total, reducing the overall deployment from 36,000 down to 24,000. Of the troops to be moved out, 6,400 will be sent back to the mainland US whereas 5,600 will be redeployed to other European countries. The costs are estimated to be in the ‘single-digit billions,’ and there is little clarity about the exact timing. Republican Senator Jim Inhofe, who is close to President Trump, stated that it will take years. This is also due to the need to agree on the complex legal framework with the new hosting countries. To ensure the continuity and the robustness of US military presence in Europe, Washington commits to rotate more units into key areas, notably on the Baltic and Black Seas.
More specifically, the 2nd Cavalry Regiment – a 4,500-men strong mechanized infantry unit equipped with Stryker armored vehicles – will be moved back to the US, thus constituting the bulk of the forces to be completely withdrawn from Europe. To compensate for its departure, other Stryker units will be rotationally deployed in the Black Sea region. Two Army battalions are also going to be redeployed to Italy where their parent brigade headquarters (HQ) are located. Three brigade-sized headquarters, an air defense artillery battalion and an engineering battalion will be redeployed to Belgium. These include 2,000 men belonging to the HQs of the European Command (EUCOM) and of the Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR), who will be moved from Stuttgart to Mons, which already hosts the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers in Europe (SHAPE), the highest military command of the Alliance. These HQ-related movements have been justified by the need to ensure unity of command. For what concerns air units, the scheduled relocation of 2,500 airmen from the UK base of Mildenhall to Germany has been cancelled. These included the 100th Air Refueling Wing (consisting of KC-135 tankers) and the 352nd Special Operations Wing (which operates CV-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft). The 28 F-16 C/D Fighting Falcon multirole jets of the 480th Fighter Squadron ‘Warhawks’, part of the 52nd Fighter Wing, will be moved to the Aviano airbase in Italy together with other fighter wing elements.
Defense Secretary Esper also revealed plans to rotate the lead component of the Army’s V Corps HQ to Poland. On the basis of a specific agreement reached on 31st July, the number of US troops in the country will increase from 4,000 to 5,500. The V Corps, formerly based in Germany, has been reactivated after its dismantlement in 2013 to improve command and control (C&C). About 200 men will be assigned to its forward HQ in Poland on a rotating basis, while other 430 will remain in the main HQ at Fort Knox, Kentucky. The strengthening of America’s military presence in Poland will also involve other units and infrastructures. These include a division command in Poznan, a training center, an Air Force logistic hub, facilities for drones, the HQ for a rotational air combat brigade, two facilities for special operations, and a base for an Armored Brigade Combat Team near the border with Germany.
