To Eswatini and Beyond: Taiwan’s Fight for Diplomatic Recognition
President Lai Ching-te’s recent visit to Eswatini illustrates how Taiwan’s already limited diplomatic leeway continues to shrink.
2026 Gibraltar Agreement: Can Spain Erode British Sovereignty?
The UK and Spain celebrate the deal as a historic pact, yet the dispute over Gibraltar sovereignty persists.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War Deal, DRC Ebola Outbreak, Quad Revived)
Examining the latest diplomatic efforts to hammer out a framework deal in the Iran war, signs that the Ebola outbreak in central Africa is worse than the data reflects, and the tentative return of the Quad as a player in the Indo-Pacific security architecture.
West African LNG After Paris: Relief, Dependency, or Diversification?
The Iran war served to focus Europe’s political attention on energy diversification. However, recent summits with African producers reveal that the continent remains unwilling to do what is necessary to achieve it.
The CFSP: Europe’s Sahel Strategy is Running Out of Time
If the European Union is serious about its role as a global security actor, it must confront an uncomfortable reality: its current approach is not delivering results in the Sahel.
The Atlantic Corridor: West Africa and Europe’s Hedge against US Energy Leverage
The Iran war has cast a spotlight on supply risks inherent to corridor architecture. With the search now on for ways to diversify beyond a volatile Middle East and conditional US suppliers, the West African Atlantic corridor stands out as a way for Brussels to achieve more durable energy security.
The Atlantic–Sahel Corridor: A New Front in Euro-Atlantic Security
The evolving dynamics of the Atlantic–Sahel corridor highlight a fundamental shift in the nature of contemporary conflict, where strategic competition unfolds across fragmented actors and environments, and where the line separating the global and local blurs.
Warlord’s Portfolio: Mapping the RSF Economy from Darfur to Dubai
The RSF has leveraged a combination of territorial control and family-based corporate networks to create one of the richest statelets in existence, with geopolitical weight that extends far beyond Sudan’s borders.
No Leverage, No Exit: Turkey’s Dealmaking in Somalia
Turkey’s dealmaking in Somalia over the past decade tends to be assessed in isolation. But when the whole picture is considered a new model of middle power engagement begins to emerge, complete with new risks and structural dependencies.
Gold and Geopolitical Risk: M23 War Chest Swells in Eastern DRC
Artisanal gold mining is known to be a driver of global conflict, and the stakes are rising as the precious metal hits all-time highs. The M23 conflict in eastern DRC shows how gold price and peace can be negatively correlated.
Eritrea Succession: A War Waiting to Happen
The highly personalized nature of the Eritrea regime has allowed Isaias Afwerki to remain in power for decades, but there’s neither a plan nor an institutional mechanism to stabilize the country when he passes away.
Africa: Next Frontline in the Global Drug Trade?
The US war on cartels will not end the global drug economy. At best it will merely shift it, and Africa could become the next frontier.
US National Security Strategy: Africa Debuts as a Global Player
The strategic logic of the United States’ new National Security Strategy puts Africa’s mineral wealth and global connectivity front and center. However, US diplomacy must adapt to fully take advantage of this new reality.
A Lucrative Hypothetical: Mauritania and the Nigeria–Morocco Pipeline
For Mauritania, the Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline delivers option value through minimal cost, maximum flexibility, and leverage that compounds, whether or not the gas ever actually flows.
Sudan at a Crossroads: Renewed US–Saudi Alignment and Red Sea Geopolitics
Renewed US–Saudi alignment, a structured Quad framework, and consistent behind-the-scenes diplomatic are fueling hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Sudan civil war. But the odds remain stacked against peace.
Permanent Partition? Frontline Hardens in Sudan Civil War
Both the SAF and RSF may accept a short-term truce owing to international pressure or tactical regrouping, but neither will make the concessions required for lasting peace. The current partition of Sudan is here to stay.
StraitBelt: Reconfiguring Sovereignty for an Ascendant Africa
The StraitBelt doctrine is an invitation to build a continental model where sovereignty is expressed through capability and where partnership replaces dependency. It is a vision of hope for Africa’s ascent in global geopolitics.
M23, Minerals, and Geopolitics in Eastern DRC
The Eastern DRC is experiencing one of the most severe security and humanitarian crises of the 21st century, and it will take much more active engagement from regional and international partners if the trend is to be reversed.
Israeli Hezbollah Strikes: Toward a New Conflict?
The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement continues to rack up violations, fueling fears of a new regional conflict in the making.
Gold, Gulf, and the Fall of El Fasher: RSF Redraws Sudan War Map
The fall of El Fasher was more than another battle lost. It marked the moment a war began to redraw Sudan’s map and, in many ways, its meaning.
