International Relations Theory News & Analysis

The Decline and Fall of the North American ‘Pax Mercatoria’

President Bill Clinton signs supplemental agreements to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) ceremony in the East Room of the White House on September 14, 1993. He is joined by former President Gerald R. Ford, Representative Tom Foley, Senator George Mitchell, former President Jimmy Carter, Senator Bob Dole, former President George H.W. Bush, Representative William Ford and Vice President Albert Gore. cc Ralph Alswang, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Bill_Clinton_signs_NAFTA.jpg

The demise of NAFTA illustrates once again how the force of commerce cannot transcend the political.

Reassessing Rearmament: Germany, Japan, and Contemporary Security Policy

cc 毎日新聞社, modified, ロンドン海軍軍縮会議の初日に演説する若槻会議は1922年(大正11)のワシントン海軍軍縮条約で対象にならなかった巡洋艦・駆逐艦・潜水艦などの補助艦艇の保有量に歯止めをかける目的で開催された。出席国は、アメリカ・イギリス・日本・フランス・イタリアの5大海軍国であったが、フランスとイタリアは潜水艦の制限保有量などに反発して本条約に調印せず、部分的な合意にとどまった。1930年1月21日撮影。写真/毎日新聞社

Warnings of ‘rearmament’ in Germany and Japan might make for an easy analogy but they miss the point: The question is not whether these countries are increasing military capabilities, but why they are. And here is where the historical comparisons start to fall apart.

Network over Structure: Moving Beyond Globalization’s Integration-Isolation Binary

cc Jean-Pierre Dalbéra, modified, Busan est le plus grand port de la Corée du sud, la ville compte plus de 3,7M habitants. C'est la deuxième ville du pays après Séoul. Durant la guerre de Corée, la ville a accueilli de très nombreux réfugiés, elle n'a jamais été occupée par les troupes communistes. Le port de Busan est le 5ème port à conteneurs du monde. Il comprend plusieurs ports, un terminal international de passagers et un terminal à conteneurs. Le port du sud abrite le marché aux poissons, il est la plus grande base de pêche de Corée. / https://www.flickr.com/photos/dalbera/49023154553

A data-based view of globalization suggests not a binary process of integration-isolation, but rather a layered network structure in which states occupy distinct positional roles in the global economy. It’s not participation that determines a state’s power, but where it’s situated in the global system.

Three Frameworks, One Paralysis: What IR Theory Reveals About Gaza

cc Jaber Jehad Badwan, modified, Forced Displacement of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip devastated by Israeli bombing, January 29, 2025 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Forced_Displacement_of_Gaza_Strip_Residents_During_the_Gaza-Israel_War_23-25.jpg

A theoretical reading of the Gaza conflict reveals a world in which international humanitarian law remains formally intact but functionally conditional.

Credibility Index: A Data-Driven Approach to Assessing the Resilience of US Power

STRAIT OF HORMUZ (Oct. 29, 2011) The amphibious assault ship USS Bataan (LHD 5) transits the Strait of Hormuz. Bataan is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility conducting maritime security operations and theater security cooperation efforts. (U.S. Navy photo by Quartermaster 1st Class Thomas E. Dowling/Released) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flickr_-_Official_U.S._Navy_Imagery_-_Day_is_done_gone_the_sun..jpg

Structural indicators of hegemony like military, institutional, and financial capacity suggest that the US global power is far more likely to decline than collapse outright.

The British Monarch Is Rediscovering Their Voice in Foreign Parliaments

Office of Congresswoman Sarah Elfreth, cc, modified, In 1693, my family left England and came to the United States in search of religious freedom and - like so many others - opportunity. Today, it was an incredible honor to be in the chamber as Congress welcomed King Charles III in celebration of our nation’s 250th anniversary of independence. From environmental conservation to the religious freedoms and checks and balances our country was founded upon, his speech was an excellent reminder of our shared values. In fact, as the King shared, it was Magna Carta that originally established the principle that “executive power is subject to checks and balances.” In this moment of emerging and ever-changing global challenges, the US-UK partnership is all the more indispensable.

Recent speeches by King Charles III in the US and Italy illustrate how non-elected heads of state are regaining a non-marginal role in the processes of legitimizing major foreign and security policy choices.

Energy Dominance: How the Iran War Reveals America’s Strategic Position

President Donald J. Trump participates in a walking tour of Cameron LNG Export Terminal Tuesday, May 14, 2019, in Hackberry, La. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead), 2019, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Trump_Visits_Cameron_LNG_Export_Terminal_%2847799045672%29.jpg

The Iran war and other geopolitical ruptures are allowing Washington to reposition itself from systemic guarantor to indispensable supplier. This new role generates revenue where the previous one generated only obligation, while simultaneously converting the dependency it once protected others from into a dependency directed at Washington itself.

Why States Do What They Do: An IR Theory Field Guide

Generated by Google Gemini AI on April 22, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

A field guide to the four theories that actually explain international relations. None alone can explain the evolution of international society. But taken together, they are the best and only way to decode complex international events.

Narrative at Arms: Framing, Discourse, and Media Control in the Iran War

Generated by Google Gemini AI on April 13, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The Iran war raises fundamental questions about who has the authority to shape a story and how much control anyone should have over wartime information in a democratic society.

Sovereign Ecosystems: How Distributed Authority Is Rewiring Global Order

Generated by Google Gemini AI on April 8, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

From the Sahel to Iraq, authority is produced through negotiation among distributed actors rather than imposed by centralized institutions. US diplomacy continues to ignore these sovereign ecosystems at its own peril.

Iran Is Not Rising. We Are Misreading It

cc Ggia, modified, (ex) USA embassy graffiti, Tehran - Iran. / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:20101227_USA_embassy_graffiti_Tehran_Iran.jpg

Iran has demonstrated an ability to operate across a broad regional landscape and to absorb external pressure, but this should not be conflated with the emergence of a stable, rising global power.

Who Controls the Strait? The Question Mahan Never Asked

Hormuz ancient map; Generated by Google Gemini AI on April 6, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Iran's selective passage list in the Strait of Hormuz reveals a logic that Alfred Thayer Mahan's framework cannot explain — but a ninth-century Islamic jurist anticipated with precision.

The Geoeconomic Angle of the Third Gulf War

M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) conduct live-fire missions during Operation Epic Fury in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. (U.S. Army Photo) Part of this photo was blurred for security purposes. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:HIMARS_Support_Operation_Epic_Fury_(9564976).jpg

In the heartland of ancient Persia, the lines in the sand of West Asia’s geoeconomic map are being redrawn.

The Iran War: America’s ‘Sicilian Expedition’?

Disegno del XIX° sec. raffigurante l'esercito ateniese durante la sua ultima battaglia in Sicilia (IV° sec. a.C.) - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Retreat_of_the_Athenians_from_Syracuse_%28Litho%29.jpeg

The ongoing conflict between Israel, the US, and Iran recalls one of the most famous episodes of the Peloponnesian war, where hubris paved the way for disaster.

Why Democratization Is a Death Sentence for the Russian Federation

Generated by Google Gemini AI on March 4, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

There is no middle ground for post-Putin Russia. It will either remain a feral, aggressive, isolated Empire, or it will fall apart with a deafening crash. A transitional, cozy European alternative for this territory simply does not exist.

From the Ruins of the Old, a New Security Architecture Takes Shape

cc Quintin Soloviev, modified, Emmanuel Macron speaking in Greenland with a European Union flag in the crowd / https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fichier:Emmanuel_Macron_speaking_in_Greenland.png

The end of the era of global alliances marks the beginning of a new security architecture, one in which effectiveness is ensured by flexibility and security rests on concrete, targeted action between like-minded allies.

Rohingya at the Hague: Turning Point for International Justice

The ICJ at the Hague; Generated by Google Gemini AI on January 20 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The Court in The Hague can issue judgments, but the world must decide whether they matter.

Fit For Purpose? Why Global Alliances Are in Decline

Generated by Google Gemini AI on January 16 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Alliances are failing to fulfill their key function of preventing conflicts. Rather, they are devolving into sources of tension as the old rulebook of collective security no longer corresponds to global realities.

Trump’s Venezuela Gambit: The Limits of Shock Politics

cc Iliana Rosales, modified, Government meeting of Venezuela in the aftermath of the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vicepresidenta_Delcy_Rodr%C3%ADguez_garantiza_justicia_contra_los_extremistas_que_promovieron_agresi%C3%B3n_armada.jpg

Without stable, predictable governance and insurance companies willing to cover Venezuelan risks, tactical military success will not translate into sustained economic engagement.

Maduro Is Gone. Venezuela’s Regime Remains

Mural Maduro, Bolívar y Chávez. País: Venezuela, modified, cc Guaiquerí - https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?limit=50&offset=0&profile=default&search=maduro&title=Special:Search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Mural_Maduro,_Bol%C3%ADvar_y_Ch%C3%A1vez.jpg

The removal of Nicolás Maduro may satisfy Washington’s appetite for decisive action, but it does not amount to regime change.

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