Following Donald Trump’s return to office, US foreign policy toward Afghanistan has undergone noticeable changes. Unlike the Biden era, which was characterized by inactive political engagement and an indifference to the Afghan issue, the new administration has taken steps to renew dialogue with Kabul.

As early as March 2025, former US Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad and the US Envoy for Hostage Affairs Adam Boehler arrived in Afghanistan. In September of the same year, two visits followed: in mid-September, Khalilzad and Boehler jointly traveled to Kabul, while at the end of the month Boehler returned independently. These visits indicate the Trump administration’s growing interest in Afghanistan and its attempts to reconfigure the US strategic presence in the region. Moreover, discussions have taken place between the Taliban government and US officials regarding a possible reopening of diplomatic missions; specifically, the Afghan embassy in Washington D.C. and the US embassy in Kabul.

Nevertheless, Donald Trump’s statements reveal the duality of his approach. At the beginning of the year, he demanded that Afghan authorities return US weapons left behind after the troop withdrawal. Later, in September, he publicly declared his intention to restore US control over the Bagram Air Base, emphasizing its strategic significance and declaring: “one of the reasons we want the base is, as you know, it’s an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons.”

Trump’s statement underscores the geopolitical significance of Afghan territory. Historically, the Soviet-era Bagram Air Base served as the largest US military installation in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021, and is now under the control of the Taliban government. In response to Trump’s remarks, Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi declared: “Not even one meter of land will be given to U.S.” The exchange set off a new cycle of US-Afghan tensions while demonstrating once again the centrality of the Bagram in regional geopolitics.

The Strategic Importance of the Bagram Air Base

The Bagram Air Base holds strategic significance for the United States for several key reasons:

• As a logistical hub. Over the span of two decades of American troops presence in Afghanistan, the United States utilized this base as a crucial operational hub in South Asia. Through Bagram, Washington coordinated regional military operations, exploratory missions, and humanitarian programs. The initial US engagement in Afghanistan was driven not only by the fight against global terrorism and the elimination of Osama bin Laden, but also by the broader objective of consolidating its foothold in the strategic heart of Eurasia. Under current geopolitical conditions, Washington recognizes that Afghanistan has once again proved it is critical importance for maintaining an active role in Eurasian affairs.
• As a strategic hedge against China. Following the withdrawal of American troops, China’s influence in Afghanistan has grown significantly in both political and economic dimensions. In 2025, the Afghan government signed a series of far-reaching agreements with Chinese companies for the development of rare earth deposits, as well as other critical minerals such as copper and lithium. Moreover, in August of the same year, the contract for the Mes Aynak deposit was extended for an additional 15 years an explicit indication of deepening partnership between Kabul and Beijing. Afghanistan’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative further consolidates China’s position in the region and heightens US concerns over Beijing’s expanding influence along the Eurasian axis.
• As a strategic hedge against Russia. The Taliban government has been actively developing cooperation not only with China but also with Russia. On July 3, 2025, Moscow officially recognized the Taliban government, effectively elevating bilateral relations to the level of a strategic partnership. This decision strengthened Russia’s position in South Asia and provided it with additional instruments of influence over regional dynamics.

Thus, Afghanistan which the United States invested into substantial resources over the past two decades, has now become a theater of increasing influence for its global competitors, China and Russia. Under these circumstances, Washington’s renewed attention to Afghanistan, and particularly to the Bagram Air Base, reflects an attempt to reassert its presence and strategic relevance in the region.

The Logic Behind the New Diplomacy

The main reasons behind the US withdrawal from Afghanistan were rooted in a complex set of geopolitical factors.

First, by the time US forces withdrew in 2021, Washington’s foreign policy priorities had shifted toward the Indo-Pacific region, which had become the central focus of its strategy to balance China. Against this backdrop, the Afghan vector gradually lost its previous importance within the broader system of US national interests.

Second, the internal costs of the prolonged campaign became increasingly unsustainable. Over twenty years of engagement in Afghanistan, the United States spent more than $2.3 trillion, yet these enormous expenditures failed to produce stable state institutions. The US-backed Afghan government proved deeply corrupt and incapable of governing independently, rendering continued support both politically and economically impractical.

Third, by withdrawing from Afghanistan, Washington may have expected a redistribution of regional attention among key actors. It was assumed that potential instability in Afghanistan could draw greater focus from China and neighboring states, thereby creating new dynamics in the regional balance of power.

However, subsequent developments revealed that the Taliban movement was able to establish control over the country relatively quickly and to build constructive relations with both China and Russia. This situation prompted Washington to reassess Afghanistan’s role within its broader Eurasian strategy and to once again emphasize the country’s geopolitical significance.

A Return to Af-Pak?

At present, the United States is reconsidering its involvement not only in Afghanistan but in South Asia more broadly. This process is driven by a number of strategic considerations.

The Trump administration places particular emphasis on its policy of containing China, within which South Asia is viewed as a key component. And the US troop withdrawal occurred under presidency of Joe Biden, not Donald Trump. Nevertheless, some analysts argue that had Trump secured a second term in 2020, the withdrawal could have taken a different form based on financial and contractual mechanisms that might have allowed the United States to maintain a limited military presence in Afghanistan and thereby preserve a degree of influence in the region. Within this logic lies Trump’s current ambition to reestablish US control over the strategically important Bagram Air Base as a vector for containing China.

Washington’s renewed interest in the region can also be observed in its relations with Pakistan. Under the Biden administration, US–Pakistan diplomatic engagement noticeably weakened, yet with Trump’s return to office, signs of rapprochement have begun to emerge. In August 2025, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, visited Washington for talks that culminated in the signing of several agreements. During the same period, the United States officially designated the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) as a terrorist organization, an act interpreted in Islamabad as a gesture of goodwill.

The parallel revitalization of US contacts with both Pakistan and Afghanistan suggests a potential revival of the Afpak strategy, which aims to adopt a comprehensive and regionally integrated approach to South Asian policy.

Looking Ahead

The revival of US-Afghan relations has the potential to significantly influence the overall geopolitical dynamics of Eurasia:

• US Re-engagement in South and Central Asia. Renewed engagement of US policy in South Asia could facilitate Washington’s re-entry into regional projects in which Afghanistan and Pakistan function as interlinked components. Such cooperation may emerge as an alternative to Chinese initiatives particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and alter the balance of economic and infrastructural interests across the region. In addition to this, increased US focus on Afghanistan will naturally increase Washington’s interest in Central Asia. According to several reports, a visit by President Donald Trump to the region was planned for 2025, which would have represented the first high-level trip of its kind in many years.
• Geopolitical ripples throughout the region. Any strengthening of the US position in Afghanistan would inevitably affect the policies of other major powers, notably Iran. The return of the United States to South Asia could potentially limit Tehran’s influence along its eastern axis and create new strategic challenges for Tehran.
• Economic incentives for Kabul. The resumption of US-Afghan relations would directly impact Afghanistan’s domestic economy. Despite the Taliban’s official stance categorically rejecting any possibility of transferring control of the Bagram Air Base to the United States, the visits by US representatives suggest hidden bilateral contacts. While the prospect of the base’s return remains unlikely, economic and financial incentives such as the potential unfreezing of approximately $9.5 billion in Afghan assets could serve as a foundation for limited cooperation and the establishment of points of convergence between the two sides in the medium term.

Islomkhon Gafarov, PhD in Political Science, Policy Analyst at the Center for Progressive Reforms, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

Shokhrux Saidov, Associated Researcher at the Center for Progressive Reforms, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

Alisher Akhmedov, Associated Researcher at the Center for Progressive Reforms, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.