Afghan Taliban News & Analysis

Why the Taliban Government Is Likely Here to Stay

Alexei Overchuk meets with Afghanistan’s Acting Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdul Ghani Baradar, cc kremlin.ru, modified, http://government.ru/en/news/55043/

Despite sustained international condemnation and relative diplomatic isolation, the Taliban government is likely to remain in power for the foreseeable future.

Taliban Poppy Ban Resets South Asian Drug Flows

Afghan poppy field, modified, Sgt Pete Thibodeauhttps://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_poppy_field_in_Helmand_province,_Afghanistan,_April_3,_2013_130403-M-BO337-191.jpg

Once the backbone of Afghanistan’s rural economy and a pillar of the global heroin trade, the opium sector is now in retreat, reshaping drug markets and security dynamics across the wider region.

China–India Rapprochement and Its Strategic Implications for Afghanistan

cc Jerome Starkey, modified, The Chinese state owned mining company MCC have built a camp at Mes Ainak, 35km south of Kabul, while archeologists are racing to excavate a series of ancient Buddhist monasteries before the bulldozers roll in. The Afghan government is desperate for the copper royalites, once mining starts, but officials familiar with the deal said the Chinise, having secured the rights to the deposit, appear to be in no hurry to start exploiting it. They are supposed to build a railway and a power station, but have not started either. / https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeromestarkey/6349904680

Shifts in Asian geopolitics are creating new opportunities for Afghanistan, but administrative and security challenges must be overcome for Kabul to take full advantage of them.

Trump Dreams of Bagram’s Geopolitical Reemergence

cc USGOV-PD, modified, English: A C-5 Galaxy takes off from a runway at Bagram Air Base, Afghanistan. In recent years, the 22nd Airlift Squadron has participated in missions in Afghanistan supporting Operation Enduring Freedom. / https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:22d_Airlift_Squadron_C-5_taking_off_from_Bagram_Air_Base_Afghanistan.jpg

A return of the Bagram Air Base remains highly unlikely, but movement in this direction reflects a tentative warming in US-Afghan ties.

Russia’s Taliban Recognition Signals Potential Domino Effect

A Taliban commander in 2002; cc Callum Darragh, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/191009661@N02/52366588521

Russia’s Taliban recognition could be the start of a trend; however, Afghanistan’s (partial) reintegration into the diplomatic mainstream will add a new layer of complexity to Central Asian geopolitics.

Trans-Afghan Railway: Central Asia’s Gateway to Global Trade

cc Julian-G. Albert, modified, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Freight_train_in_northern_Afghanistan-2012.jpg

The Trans-Afghan Railway stands as a transformative project for Eurasian trade, representing a strategic corridor that bypasses traditional chokepoints and redefines connectivity from Central Asia to the Indian Ocean.

Minerals for Recognition: The Taliban’s Shadow Diplomacy

The Chinese state owned mining company MCC have built a camp at Mes Ainak, 35km south of Kabul, while archeologists are racing to excavate a series of ancient Buddhist monasteries before the bulldozers roll in. The Afghan government is desperate for the copper royalites, once mining starts, but officials familiar with the deal said the Chinise, having secured the rights to the deposit, appear to be in no hurry to start exploiting it. They are supposed to build a railway and a power station, but have not started either. / cc Jerome Starkey, modified, https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeromestarkey/6349904680

The Taliban leadership is seeking to leverage Afghanistan’s considerable mineral wealth in a comprehensive effort to gain wider diplomatic recognition for the regime.

The Historical Roots and Contemporary Dynamics of Extremism in Pakistan

Birds-eye view of Pakistan's Swat Valley; cc ResoluteSupportMedia, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/isafmedia/5013879903/in/photolist-8S6FSf-9pyXaP-8NvboN-SeszU1-2oW41KC-2oW2KQ3-2oW1Wq5-2oVXURa-pg7JJW-u4FDTy-8D4rPe-8R8bqP-9ghnVq-8XT6Fd-2oW4xLt-8zZMGC-8ARXE2-btJZ96-aRwyX4-8WGTsT-2n3pSGC-8XTzM3-8JWi1F-2oW42a5-9ge4mt-8zZMGj-8ARZ8c-boNxGt-8XQxQK-8WGUPB-8WGSJr-9pJybY-8JZq2f-9pyVKt-8WGUp2-8AV5mo-8AUYh3-eYE4BG-vGjhvd-8XdpuH-8QcvJb-8XdpG6-8NJnbD-8R8gUP-8JZokQ-8R8gV6-8M9VcE-8XQdND-8GMZ6F-8D4nT4

Examining the historical and geopolitical factors driving increased extremism in Pakistan.

The Making of ‘Terroristan’: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Pashtun Nationalism

cc erwinlux, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&limit=500&offset=0&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1&search=pashtun+afghanistan+filetype%3Abitmap&advancedSearch-current={%22fields%22:{%22filetype%22:%22bitmap%22}}#/media/File:Mortar_attack_on_Shigal_Tarna_garrison,_Kunar_Province,_87_(1to1).jpg

Conventional assessments of the Pashtunwali social code and the history of the Pashtun region tend to overlook the geopolitical and colonial factors that fueled the rise of terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Taliban’s Plan to Rebuild and Legitimize al-Qaeda

cc Hamid Mir, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?search=Ayman%20al-Zawahiri&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns12=1&ns14=1&ns100=1&ns106=1#/media/File:Hamid_Mir_interviewing_Osama_bin_Laden_and_Ayman_al-Zawahiri_2001.jpg, Osama bin Laden sits with his adviser and purported successor Ayman al-Zawahiri during an interview in Afghanistan, Barack Obama

Those advocating for Taliban recognition must consider the ongoing renaissance of al-Qaeda, a process that is being actively facilitated by the regime.

UNAMA and Kazakhstan: Filling the Void in Afghanistan

John Gillespie, modified, https://flickr.com/photos/johnji/36514217083/in/photolist-XCCUAX-DK1svY-2a1H8cx-2hpGkBr-Dkdb2j-EyL5pD-DKACRg-DMjRwt-8CVYtV-DMjvtc-CPPbUW-DkcXZd-CPNWhE-CPVUpg-2hjCXn9-29bVVuM-E9uQfD-EEEBv7-E9uFQH-DKfCNG-2hkJ3wV-cdfnju-ytaQPQ-ysX3Up-CPPiKQ-DKfCJd-2hjENNE-2hjENaA-ze1cDw-2beu8vK-zf3tec-2hmCCVN-z1nwwS-8CZ4Hh-zdJoJ9-p5ox9Z-2hm9rnD-zftcNZ-2hkjTwM-2hkkCSR-2hmuGJQ-2hmCCLE-pmSzeg-YCZLkY-zc8eXG-2nxVLG7-p5osPg-4w3m5M-bo65oY-aB9TW8

The latest UN General Assembly shed some light on one of the few humanitarian organizations still operating in Afghanistan.

Zawahiri Killing: A New Twist in Afghanistan

Osama bin Laden sits with his adviser and purported successor Ayman al-Zawahiri during an interview in Afghanistan, Barack Obama; Hamid Mir, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hamid_Mir_interviewing_Osama_bin_Laden_and_Ayman_al-Zawahiri_2001.jpg

The recent Zawahiri killing highlights how hard it is for Washington to completely quit the region.

Changing Political and Economic Dynamics in Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan

cc VOA, flickr, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Taliban_Fighters_and_Truck_in_Kabul,_August_17_2021.png

Ten months in, the Taliban consolidates its rule while normal Afghans try to survive amid economic devastation.

A Catch-22? Women’s Rights and the Recognizing the Taliban

cc DVIDSHUB, modified, Flickr, https://flickr.com/photos/dvids/7408738172/in/photolist-chFHK3-aYEUS6-ecvjXQ-aBK8yy-bjinMM-cckD6u-85qpCG-Acu4oY-83f9AK-9EyWJd-9jPgg4-7gobyG-22HugYw-9jPgne-9jPgi6-FHMrZJ-FEdkGc-FBU7LG-e1kVW9-p5N83J-FL5n1D-7tqkC7-EQCNQy-FkXYd5-2iDYfRG-avEw3p-FBU7KE-cRHSeS-bpueLW-9rm1eU-EQPRDB-ecpJ7c-avEw3z-7NfqeZ-7AdTG5-7wEEZq-cRHSiq-7QqZYS-avEw3x-7Nfq2p-e2j4DP-EQCNP1-dTVMvr-EQCLVb-sfqFrm-aWoGhr-2k71Zhj-EQCNvL-chyQry-9R2Ypq

The Taliban is systematically curtailing the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan, but there are policy options available to the international community.

Taliban Reloaded: New Regime, Old Name

Two women walk past the huge cavity where one of the ancient Buddhas of Bamiyan, known to locals as the

The geopolitical context has changed between 2001 and 2021, and thus we should expect a different foreign policy from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

Afghanistan’s Fate Will Be Shaped by Geoeconomics

Operation Enduring Freedom

Three geoeconomic factors will determine the future of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan: opium, natural resources, and regional trade networks.

The Afghan Taliban Tries Moderation

U.S. Marines with Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force - Crisis Response - Central Command, provide assistance during an evacuation at Hamid Karzai International Airport, Kabul, Afghanistan, Aug. 20. U.S. service members are assisting the Department of State with an orderly drawdown of designated personnel in Afghanistan. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Nicholas Guevara), modified, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_the_fall_of_Kabul_(2021)#/media/File:August_20_2021_Evacuation_at_Hamid_Karzai_International_Airport.jpg

Various geopolitical pressures are set to produce a more moderate Taliban regime in the short-term – but sharia remains a red line.

Qatar Emerges as Power Broker in New Afghanistan

US representative Zalmay Khalilzad (left) and Taliban representative Abdul Ghani Baradar (right) sign the agreement in Doha, Qatar on February 29, 2020. [State Department photo by Ron Przysucha/ Public Domain], cc US State Department, modified,

Doha has spent years building political capital with the Taliban. Now it will have an opportunity to spend it.

Taliban Redux: Opportunities and Challenges for China in Afghanistan

cc Kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/351/events/49899/photos/41076

The new geopolitical reality on China’s borders could trade short-term pain for long-term gain.

What Does Afghanistan Mean for US Allies in East Asia?

210818-M-TU241-1001 HAMID KARZAI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, Afghanistan (August 18, 2021) Marines with the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) search luggage during an evacuation at Hamid Karzai International Airport, Kabul, Afghanistan, Aug. 18. U.S. Marines are assisting the Department of State with an orderly drawdown of designated personnel in Afghanistan., U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Isaiah Campbell/U.S. Central Command Public Affairs , modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&redirs=0&search=kabul%20airport&fulltext=Search&ns0=1&ns6=1&ns14=1&title=Special:Search&advanced=1&fulltext=Advanced%20search#/media/File:Marines_with_the_24th_Marine_Expeditionary_Unit_(MEU)_search_luggage_during_an_evacuation_at_Hamid_Karzai_International_Airport,_Kabul,_Afghanistan,_Image_6_of_8.jpg

The fall of Kabul is causing some to question Washington’s commitment to its East Asian allies.

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