This week we cover the latest negotiations and geopolitical ripples from Trump tariffs in Europe and Asia; Russia’s outsize role in Iran nuclear negotiations; Washington stepping in against the M23 in Central Africa; and signs of life in the Alaska LNG project.

Iran appears to be dialing back proxy activity in Yemen and Iraq amid bilateral nuclear talks, but this isn’t necessarily a paradigm shift in the making.

Despite initial descriptions of the talks as “constructive” the prospects for a sustainable agreement remain bleak.

Though the ‘maximum pressure’ of the first Trump administration was unsuccessful in deterring Iran, it’s about to make a comeback – and this time in a much more volatile Middle East.

Two pillars of Iran’s conventional deterrence have been severely eroded in short order. Will the regime turn to nuclear weapons in an attempt to restore the regional balance of power?

With the rise of Masoud Pezeshkian, Washington gets one more chance at a nuclear deal and reconciliation. Failure all but ensures a nuclear Iran and a slew of geopolitical setbacks for the West.

Trust, domestic political opposition, regional power dynamics, and geopolitical volatility all pose significant challenges to Saudi-Iran reconciliation.

Will the wave of protests centered on the death of Masha Amini have a different outcome than previous nation-wide outbreaks of unrest?

Drought, global markets, and fiscal pressures are giving rise to a cost-of-living crisis in Iran, and it’s a risk that’s becoming increasingly common throughout the developing world as the Ukraine war drags on.

Ethiopia to vote in a landmark election, commodity prices come back down to Earth, and Iran’s election produces few surprises.

Though short on details, the recent China-Iran deal could one day be looked back on as a seminal moment in the geopolitics of the Middle East.

Now over 42 years on, the disaster of the so-called Islamic revolution is still playing out for the long-suffering people of Iran.

Will Joe Biden pick up where President Trump left off in the Middle East?

Tehran is now free to engage in global arms markets. But is anyone buying?

Emerging challenges in the new geopolitical context need more, not less, US leadership and trans-Atlantic cooperation.

Will historians look back on the assassination of Qassem Soleimani as the catalyst for a new war in the Middle East?

New nationwide protests are heaping pressure on the Rouhani regime; but all routes to a political solution remain blocked off.

Maximum pressure is working – just not in the way that US officials had hoped it would.

Is Europe is warming to ‘maximum pressure’?

Risks are mounting on both the supply and demand side of global oil markets.