Global geopolitical trends we’re tracking this week:

Key Dates

June 21 – Ethiopia parliamentary election.

June 22 – Brazil central bank minutes release.

June 22 – US existing home sales for May.

June 22 – Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell testifies on economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee, including a question-answer session. The Fed made its long-expected hawkish pivot last week, shifting forward economic projections that had previously seen no rate increases until 2024. The latest dot plot sees at least two hikes in 2023. Markets will be monitoring Powell’s testimony for signs of a taper in the Fed’s asset purchasing program. Despite the tonal shift on interest rates, last week’s meeting made no mention of the QE, maintaining a rate of $120 billion in monthly purchases.

June 22 – Euro zone consumer confidence for June.

June 23 – Germany manufacturing PMI for June.

June 23 – Euro zone Markit composite PMI for June.

June 23 – UK composite, manufacturing, and services PMI.

June 23 – Canada core retail sales for April.

June 23 – US new home sales for May.

June 23 – US crude oil inventories.

June 24 – Germany business expectations and IFO Business Climate Index for June.

June 24 – Spain Q1 GDP numbers.

June 24 – Bank of England interest rate decision.

June 24 – US core durable goods orders for May.

June 24 – New Zealand trade balance for May.

June 24 – Tokyo core CPI for June.