Global geopolitical trends we’re tracking this week:

Key Dates

July 4 – Australia retail sales for May.

July 4 – China Caixin services PMI for June.

July 4 – European services PMI.

July 5 – UK composite and services PMI.

July 5 – Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey.

July 6 – Australia central bank interest rate decision and statement. Though unlikely, it remains a distinct possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia will signal a deviation from its dovish 2024 target for first post-pandemic interest rate hike, likely citing strong inflation and an ahead-of-schedule economic recovery.

July 6 – Germany factory orders for May.

July 6 – European retails sales for May.

July 6 – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for June.

July 7 – US JOLTS job openings for May.

July 7 – Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee minutes released for mid-June meeting. This will be watched closely for additional insight into the timing of future rate hikes, especially given the strong jobs data of recent weeks.

July 8 – European Central Bank monetary policy statement.

July 8 – US initial jobless claims.

July 8 – US crude oil inventories.

July 8 – China consumer price index and producer price index for June.

July 9 – UK GDP for June/Q2 2021.

July 9 – UK manufacturing production and trade balance.

July 9 – Canada unemployment for June.