Global geopolitical trends we’re tracking this week:
Key Dates
October 4 – US Trade Representative Katherine Tai expected to deliver a speech revealing the Biden administration’s China trade strategy.
October 4 – Spain unemployment data.
October 4 – OPEC+ meeting to review output levels. Amid rising oil prices, a string of upside inflation surprises, and growth hurdles across major economies, there is speculation that the cartel will boost output in order to ease supply constraints, with one source envisioning a one-month boost of 800,000 bpd.
October 4 – Canada building permits for August.
October 4 – United States factory orders for August.
October 4 – South Korea Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September.
October 4 – Tokyo Core CPI for September.
October 4 – Australia retail sales.
October 4 – Australia central bank rate decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained that it won’t hike rates until 2024, even as housing prices in cities like Sydney and Melbourne hit record highs on loose credit conditions.
October 5 – Spain, Italy, Germany, and Italy services PMI for September.
October 5 – United Kingdom composite and services PMI for September.
October 5 – Euro zone Producer Price Index (PPI) for August.
October 5 – Brazil industrial production for August.
October 5 – United States imports/exports and trade balance for August.
October 5 – Canada trade balance for August.
October 5 – United States Markit Composite PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for September.
October 5 – New Zealand central bank rate decision.
October 6 – United Kingdom construction PMI for September.
October 6 – Euro zone retail sales for August.
October 6 – Brazil retail sales for August.
October 6 – United States crude oil inventories.
October 7 – Germany industrial production for August.
October 7 – Mexico CPI for September.
October 7 – United States initial jobless claims.
October 7 – Canada Ivey PMI for September.
October 7 – China Caixin Services PMI for September. The data is expected to reflect a contraction (mean estimate of 46.7), and will go far in describing the effects of China’s summertime Delta variant shutdown.
October 8 – India central bank interest rate decision.
October 8 – Germany trade balance for August.
October 8 – Brazil CPI and inflation index for September.
October 8 – United States average hourly earnings for September.
October 8 – United States and Canada unemployment for September.
World
COVID-19 fast facts
- With COVID-19 endemic around the world, policymakers are pivoting away from the ‘zero COVID’ containment strategies that proved highly effective in the early stages of the pandemic. A 6.2% contraction in third-quarter GDP helped convince Vietnam to end its draconian measures earlier this week; it was followed by Australia, which announced a reopening of borders on Friday. The last major holdout is China, which incidentally is building a network of large quarantine centers for foreign arrivals, which could signal its own eventual easing of restrictions.
- The latest WHO situation report notes an ongoing decline in COVID of around 10% in worldwide cases and deaths over the course of the week.
- Merck has announced that it will apply for emergency authorization for a new pill that has cut the rate of COVID-related hospitalization in half during interim clinical trials.
Europe
Energy crisis goes from bad to worse as Europe and China fight for supply
Natural gas prices hit record highs in Europe to close the week as the continent vies for supply with China, which is in the grip of its own power crisis centered on the industrial heartland in the northeast. The latest spike in liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices comes after the Chinese government reportedly issued a directive to state-owned entities to do whatever it takes to secure supply ahead of the winter.
