Global geopolitical trends we’re tracking this week:
Key Dates
August 2 – Germany retail sales for June.
August 2 – Germany manufacturing PMI for July.
August 2 – Brazil central bank yearly expectations, including inflation, GDP growth, debt, and current account.
August 2 – United States ISM manufacturing PMI for July.
August 2 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI for July. The consensus estimate is a reading of 50.8, down from June’s 50.9 result, as higher input prices, new Delta outbreaks, and policymakers pumping the brakes on industrial output create headwinds for China’s economic recovery.
August 3 – New Zealand central bank interest rate decision and statement.
August 3 – Spain unemployment data.
August 3 – New Zealand retail sales for June.
August 3 – China Caixin services PMI for July.
August 4 – Spain, Italy, Germany services PMI for July.
August 4 – UK composite and services PMI for July.
August 4 – United States non-farm employment for July.
August 4 – Canada building permits for June.
August 4 – United States ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July.
August 4 – United States crude oil inventories.
August 5 – UK construction PMI for July.
August 5 – Germany factory orders for June.
August 5 – Bank of England interest rate decision. No change is expected here, but the BOE may take a page out of the Fed’s book and look to map out a path to normalization in the year ahead.
August 5 – United States initial jobless claims.
August 5 – United States trade balance for June.
August 5 – Canada trade balance for June.
August 5 – Japan household spending for June.
August 6 – India central bank interest rate decision.
August 6 – Mexico CPI for July.
August 6 – United states nonfarm payrolls for July. This will be among the most telling data points of the week, as it will go far in determining the timeline of the Federal Reserve’s taper process (Fed officials are expected to begin deliberations during the week to establish a timeline for the withdrawal of monetary stimulus). Markets are expecting a big result, with a consensus estimate of 900,000 added jobs, which would represent the largest monthly increase in eight months.
August 6 – United States unemployment for July.
August 6 – Canada unemployment for July.
