Global geopolitical trends we’re tracking this week:
Key Dates
September 20 – Germany Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August.
September 20 – Canada general election.
September 20 – Brazil central bank Focus Market Report.
September 20 – Australia central bank meetings release. No surprises expected here; Bank governor Philip Lowe has recently reiterated a commitment to hold off on any interest rate hike until 2024.
September 21 – United States current account for Q2.
September 21 – China central bank loan prime rate announcement.
September 21 – Japan central bank monetary policy statement and press conference.
September 22 – South Africa Core CPI for August.
September 22 – United State crude oil inventories.
September 22 – United States existing home sales for August.
September 22 – United States central bank interest rate decision, ‘dot plot’ (interest rate projections), monetary policy statement, and press conference.
September 23 – Spain GDP for Q2.
September 23 – Germany Manufacturing PMI.
September 23 – United Kingdom Manufacturing PMI.
September 23 – United Kingdom central bank interest rate decision.
September 23 – Canada core retail sales for July.
September 23 – Japan Core CPI for August.
September 24 – Germany IFO Business Climate Index.
September 24 – Speech from US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.
September 24 – United States rig count.
September 26 – China industrial profit for August.
World
COVID-19 fast facts
- The weekly WHO Situation Report notes ‘the first substantial decline in weekly cases in more than two months’ with an overall decline of 13% globally, with reductions across all regions. Deaths were also down 7% across the globe over the past week.
- Africa continues to lag other continents in terms of vaccination rates, with just 3% of the African population fully vaccinated.
- Pfizer-conducted research out of Israel evidently shows that a third vaccine booster restores protection rates to 95%. On the basis of the study, the company will be seeking a license for boosters administered six-months after the second of the initial two shots.
Europe
France is furious about the AUKUS defense pact
The French government has withdrawn its ambassadors from the United States and Australia in protest of the AUKUS defense pact, which led to a previous deal between Canberra and Paris to procure diesel submarines being scrapped. One former ambassador to France remarked that the move is just “the tip of the iceberg,” and that a sense of betrayal permeates the entire French political establishment, reaching all the way up the president himself, who personally made the decision to withdraw the ambassadors.
Asia
China’s central bank turns to liquidity injections amid Evergrande upheavals
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) injected some 90 billion yuan ($14 billion) into the system on Friday – the first such injection of over 10 billion yuan in a single day this month, and the largest intervention since February.
