The Geopolitics of Geo-Engineering: Weather Warfare vs. Climate Security
Geoengineering risks transforming the climate itself into an arena of geopolitical competition, where the atmosphere, sunlight, and weather systems become objects of strategic control.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War Deal, DRC Ebola Outbreak, Quad Revived)
Examining the latest diplomatic efforts to hammer out a framework deal in the Iran war, signs that the Ebola outbreak in central Africa is worse than the data reflects, and the tentative return of the Quad as a player in the Indo-Pacific security architecture.
Bringing the Bullion Back: Geopolitics Returns to Global Gold Markets
The New York Fed’s vault remains the largest sovereign gold repository in the world, but recent withdrawals suggest that geopolitical considerations are increasingly tilting the balance toward domestic storage, even among longstanding US allies.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, Putin-Xi Summit, DRC Ebola Outbreak)
Examining the latest developments in the Iran war, a Putin-Xi summit just one week after President Trump came to town, and an expanding Ebola outbreak in the DRC.
A Fine Balance: Dependence and Autonomy in US Alliances
Alliances are not neutral, and bases are not passive infrastructure. They are instruments of strategy. The sooner that policy reflects this, the more resilient alliances will be when the next crisis hits.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, Trump-Xi Summit, BRICS+ Meeting)
Examining the latest developments in the Iran war, a conspicuously muted summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping, and growing pains in a recent BRICS+ meeting.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, Food Prices, Ukraine Ceasefire)
Examining attempts to secure a long-lasting peace deal in the Iran war, ominous trends in global food prices, and what a rare ceasefire could mean for the Ukraine war.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, US-EU Tariffs, Mali Insurgency)
Examining the latest developments in the Iran war, the bottom falling out of US-EU relations, and how an expanding insurgency threatens state collapse in Mali.
Energy Dominance: How the Iran War Reveals America’s Strategic Position
The Iran war and other geopolitical ruptures are allowing Washington to reposition itself from systemic guarantor to indispensable supplier. This new role generates revenue where the previous one generated only obligation, while simultaneously converting the dependency it once protected others from into a dependency directed at Washington itself.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, Japan Arms Sales, Balikatan War Games)
Examining the latest developments in the Iran war and Japan’s re-invention as an autonomous player in Indo-Pacific security.
Critical Minerals: Global Gallium Supply & Demand
Gallium is a soft, silvery metal used in semiconductor production, and with China producing 99% of the world’s supply – it has become one of the most geopolitically contested commodities of the decade. This article examines gallium supply and demand dynamics, as well as recent progress toward self-sufficiency in Western supply chains.
Why States Do What They Do: An IR Theory Field Guide
A field guide to the four theories that actually explain international relations. None alone can explain the evolution of international society. But taken together, they are the best and only way to decode complex international events.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, Ceasefire Prospects, US Stockpiles)
Examining the latest developments in the US-Israel Iran war, prospects for a ceasefire extension, and new signs of stress in the US military-industrial complex.
Distributed Risk: Open-Source Software as Strategic Infrastructure
The 2024 XZ incident illustrates how open-source software (OSS) has become strategic infrastructure in the global economy, opening up new strategic vulnerabilities and new pathways to geopolitical leverage.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, China MANPADs, US Hormuz Blockade)
Examining the latest developments in the US-Israel Iran war, including reports of covert Chinese arms shipments to Iran and the risks involved in President Trump’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
Crisis in Hormuz Exposes Fragility of the Rules-Based Order
The Hormuz crisis is pushing the global system to the brink, exposing not only geopolitical fault lines but the moral contradictions embedded in the international order itself.
Sovereign Ecosystems: How Distributed Authority Is Rewiring Global Order
From the Sahel to Iraq, authority is produced through negotiation among distributed actors rather than imposed by centralized institutions. US diplomacy continues to ignore these sovereign ecosystems at its own peril.
Who Controls the Strait? The Question Mahan Never Asked
Iran's selective passage list in the Strait of Hormuz reveals a logic that Alfred Thayer Mahan's framework cannot explain — but a ninth-century Islamic jurist anticipated with precision.
Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, NATO Infighting, Economic Fallout)
Examining the latest developments in the US-Israel Iran war; how President Trump’s latest attacks on NATO allies are producing a new response; and mounting global economic fallout from supply chain disruptions in the Persian Gulf.
How Multipolarity Shifts the Logic of Escalation in Iran
Structural constraints of an increasingly multipolar global system mitigate against the risk of the Iran conflict spiraling into World War III.
