Global Forecast (9-25-2018)


Sweden PM Löfven loses confidence vote

As expected, former prime minister and leader of the Social Democrats Stefan Löfven has lost a confidence vote and will be forced to step down as the country’s leader. He will remain prime minister in a caretaker capacity until a new administration is formed or new elections are held.

Löfven had first crack at forming a coalition following inconclusive elections earlier this month. His failure was assured in the direct aftermath of the election, when the center-right bloc under Ulf Kristersson pledged to reject Löfven’s leadership in a confidence vote.

We seem to be moving closer to the scenario envisioned in a previous Global Forecast. Sweden employs a negative majority system in its Riksdag, which means that the ruling coalition is enshrined not because it commands majority voting power, but rather because it hasn’t received a majority of votes against it. The system leaves significant room for ambiguity in coalition formation, which is an important factor given the political toxicity of the current kingmaker: the far-right Sweden Democrats.

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