COVID-19 has now infected 81,266 people worldwide, 2,770 of which have died. The outbreak remains centered in China with 78,064 cases, 62,031 of them in Hubei province; however, since last week COVID-19 has seen notable spread elsewhere, such as Italy (374 confirmed cases, mostly in the north), Iran (139, though the official number is disputed), the UAE (13), and Kuwait (25). The situation in East Asia outside of China continues to worsen as South Korea now has 1,261 cases, mostly concentrated around the southern city of Daegu, and Japan is up to 172 cases. COVID-19 has now been identified for the first time in Brazil, Algeria, Egypt, Greece, Lebanon, Iraq, and Israel. And the authorities in Spain, which has 10 confirmed cases, have locked down a hotel in the Canary Islands, effectively placing hundreds of tourists in quarantine following a positive test by one of the guests.
WHO has confirmed that daily new cases outside of China now exceed those within it, though the organization has held off on characterizing the outbreak as a pandemic.
Equity markets have plunged in tow with the virus’ widening global footprint. Fears caught up with US investors this week, prompting a two-day plunge of more than 6% for the Dow, and European stocks had been following suit before a broad bounce-back on Wednesday. Asian markets have slipped over the past five days, with the Nikkei 225 down 3.2%, the Kospi down 6.1%, and the S&P/ASX 200 down 5.8%.
In a continuing series, we track the companies, industries, and markets that are being disrupted by the COVID-19 outbreak:
- The past week has provided no shortage of bad news for oil exporters. WTI crude is currently settling around the sub-$50 mark – a 12-month low – which is well below the break-even level for most OPEC+ exporters. But even more worrisome is the fact that, not only do demand-side shocks become more pronounced with every new national frontier that COVID-19 breaks through, but they also become more prolonged – a prospect that risks forcing debt-saddled producers into fiscal distress.
- All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve to step in with a rate cut should equity markets continue to plunge on worries of a COVID-related downturn. According to the CME Group, there’s now a one-in-three chance that we see a rate cut on the Fed’s next scheduled meeting on March 17-18, as per reporting by the Wall Street Journal. Bets that the pandemic could force the hand of an otherwise hawkish Fed might have something to do with the initial strength of US equities on Wednesday, despite an uninterrupted stream of negative virus-related news.
