Despite the daily trickle of violations that have taken place since the fall of Debaltseve, the Minsk II ceasefire has been a success in terms of reducing the pace of soldier deaths and civilian casualties. This period of relative peace seems to be coming to an end though. Heavy fighting broke out in Marinka on Wednesday, located just on the western outskirts of Donetsk, resulting in at least 15 deaths.

Several indications suggest that this fighting is not a mistake or aberration, but rather a sign of things to come. The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) has been releasing reports (largely ignored) in which it notes having seen heavy weapons on both sides of the front. According to the Ukrainian military brass, the rebels have deployed over 1,000 fighters along with tanks and artillery in the region, and they’re gearing up for a major offensive.

There are also reports of new fighting in government-held Avdiivka, a city nestled along a key hub of major roadways just north of Donetsk.

As in the past, each side blamed the other for the outbreak of fighting in Marinka.

Analysis

Past experience suggests that this might just be a new push by the rebel side. Their ultimate objectives are more or less known: push out rebel-held territory until it reaches the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, capturing key cities such as Mariupol along the way to ensure economic viability should the Ukrainian civil war be locked in as a ‘frozen conflict’ for years to come. The rebel leadership appears to believe that now is a good opportunity to resume the fight, albeit slow and steady so that it does not produce an international backlash.