The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2017. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe. 

Shinzo Abe’s LDP Cruises to another Supermajority in Japan

Shinzo Abe has scored a resounding victory in last weekend’s snap election in Japan. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) combined with its coalition partner Komeito to take 311 seats in the 465-seat lower house of the National Diet.

The victory amounts to a big gamble paying off for Prime Minister Abe. Just four months ago, he was languishing in the polls amid two nepotism scandals, and many assumed that he would not survive a leadership challenge at the LDP conference next year. Closer to the election, Tokyo governor and ex-LDP renegade Yuriko Koike formed a new party and seemed to be on her way to splitting the LDP’s national take.

But in the end, the Koike tsunami did not materialize – in large part because the party leader herself refused to run for a Diet seat, thus eliminating her from contention for the job of prime minister. This is not to say that the Party of Hope didn’t make waves: by splitting the opposition Democratic Party, the Party of Hope paradoxically helped Abe obtain a new supermajority largely uncontested.

Looking ahead we see an Abe unfettered by the political uncertainty surrounding next year’s LDP conference. Barring a massive scandal, he will be reelected as LDP leader, and he will continue to implement the parts of his original platform that have been met with opposition from other lawmakers and the public at large. North Korea will figure prominently in his efforts, as this is an issue that helped Abe recover from a scandal-plagued 2017. The ‘normalization’ of Japanese defense policy – increased defense spending, relationship-building in Asia, developing offensive and force-projecting platforms – will proceed unchanged.

One enduring goal for Abe has been to revise the constitution and eliminate the pacifist clauses that restrict the operational scope of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF). Abe will no doubt continue to pursue this goal; however, it’s worth bearing in mind that it wasn’t the LDP’s seat count but rather polling numbers in general that have stood in the way of constitutional reform. The Japanese public still hasn’t warmed to the idea of changing the pacifist constitution, and popular consent would be required via referendum for any constitutional change.