The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2017. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.

Minority Government in Ireland Avoids a Snap Election – For Now

Ireland’s Deputy Prime Minister Frances Fitzgerald is stepping down due to a scandal in the police forces. Her resignation comes after new emails revealed that Fitzgerald was aware of a smear campaign being directed against a police whistleblower who had spoken out on corruption on the force.

Fitzgerald’s departure is meant to rescue the minority government of Taoiseach Leo Varadkar of the Fine Gael party. Varadkar is currently holding talks with the opposition Fianna Fail party in the hope of avoiding a no confidence vote and snap elections over the Christmas holidays. It appears that Fitzgerald’s resignation will be enough to keep Varadkar afloat.