The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2017. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.
April 16: Turks Decide whether to Make Erdogan President-for-life
Turkey’s constitutional referendum will be held on April 16.
The vote will be a seminal one in the career of the powerful love-hate figure of President Erdogan. It will ask citizens to decide on a package of 18 constitutional amendments that could fundamentally change the workings of the Turkish state. Broadly speaking, they amount to a reshuffling of powers between the legislative and executive branches, with authority shifting toward the latter in something akin to a US-style presidential system. If passed, the referendum would eliminate the post of prime minister, allow Erdogan to serve as the head of the AKP party (currently the president must be neutral), abolish military courts (bringing soldiers under civilian jurisdiction), and pave the way for Erdogan to stand in elections for two more terms, setting the table for him to remain in power until 2029.
The importance of the vote to Erdogan’s political project cannot be overstated. The two-thirds supermajority in parliament required to pass the changes has long been sought by the AKP; this passage finally occurred in January of this year, with 339 votes – 9 over the needed 330. Erdogan’s priorities have been on open display in his government’s willingness to scold EU states, perhaps with long-term ramifications, in order to drum up expatriate support for the referendum. So far, over 1.2 million Turkish expats have voted on the amendments, and expatriate support for the AKP has tended to run high (in 2015 elections, 59% of Turks in Germany voted for the AKP).
Recent polls put the vote as too close to call, with ‘Yes’ maintaining a narrow but consistent lead.
April 23: ‘Frexit’ or ‘Le Pexit’ as France Heads to the Polls to Decide the Future of the European Union
One of the most-watched days of the 2017 electoral calendar is April 23, when France will vote in presidential elections. It is arguably a far more decisive date than upcoming German elections in September since, at least for the time being, the French elections seem more likely to put an anti-establishment, anti-EU candidate in power.
Those chances still appear low overall, however. Recent polls for the first round put Marine Le Pen at 24%, the more establishment Emmanuel Macron at 23%, the graft allegation-hounded Francois Fillon at 19%, and the far-left Melenchon at 18%, who has been surging lately.
