The GPM Global Forecast is a bi-weekly, members-only article series for 2018. It provides analysis and short-term forecasting on key military, political, and economic events around the globe.


Some of the details are filled in on President Trump’s trade war

As our recent situation report on the brewing US trade war pointed out, President Trump generally floats his policy ideas in a vague and half-baked form only to let the details be filled in by the public and media response. It would seem that his steel and aluminum tariffs are no exception. Consider his administration’s comments on when to expect an announcement that includes the details of his plan: “at the end of this week” (Sarah Huckabee Sanders); “this week or the following week at the latest” (Peter Navarro); or the even less commital “He has made a decision. If he, for some reason, should change his mind, then it’ll change” (Wilbur Ross).