Us-China Rivalry News & Analysis

Sovereignty, Airpower, and the Limits of Alliance Integration

Generated by Google Gemini AI on June 30, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality. | Uses elements from the work of Hunini; October 2024, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GCAP_concept_model_%28delta_wing_type%29_left_rear_top_view_in_GCAP_booth_of_JA2024_at_Tokyo_Big_Sight_October_19,_2024_03.jpg

The question is not whether a sixth-generation fighter can be built. It’s whether these aircraft will be able to operate effectively in the environment they are being built for.

How Trump’s Marine Monument Announcement Counters China in the Pacific

A U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball (WMSL 756) law enforcement team pulls alongside the F/V Pacific Venture prior to conducting a living marine resource boarding in the Bering Sea, June 1, 2024. Kimball’s crew ensured fishing vessels in the Bering Sea were within compliance of all federal fishery conservation laws and safety requirements through the completion of twenty living marine resources boardings during their 122-day patrol of the region. U.S. Coast Guard photo by Ensign James Bongard. - https://www.news.uscg.mil/Doing-Business/Photos/igphoto/2003520062/

President Trump's maritime national monument order has been viewed as a deregulation story. But it's also a strategic one that places US civilian vessels in close proximity to China’s irregular maritime forces in the Pacific.

Anthropic’s Fable Debacle and the Perils of Dual-use AI Technologies

cc TechCrunch, modified, Dario Amodei at TechCrunch Disrupt 2023

The debacle surrounding the launch of Fable by Anthropic is only the tip of the iceberg of dual-use AI. If effective safeguards are not established, the AI arms race ensures that dangerous models will fall into the hands of bad actors.

Geopolitical Dimensions of Forced Labor Governance

Generated by Google Gemini AI on June 2, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality. A modification of this image: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/The_Right_to_Strike.jpg - cc Stilgherrian; modified.

Global labor governance is fracturing, leaving manufacturers caught between competing legal systems that, in effect, force them to choose between maintaining access to the Chinese input networks or Western markets.

Lessons Forgotten: Critical Minerals and Partisan Ideology in the U.S.

cc Obama White House, modified, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2009/11/17/us-and-china-towards-a-clean-energy-economy/ - President Barack Obama and President Hu Jintao together at a reception before the formal state dinner at Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China on Nov. 17, 2009. (Official White House photo by Pete Souza) November 17, 2009. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Administrations from both sides of the aisle have left US critical minerals supply chains highly vulnerable amid a return to great power politics. But stockpiling initiatives like ‘Project Vault’ suggest that Washington is beginning to remember the old truism that economics and geopolitics are inseparable.

From Crisis to Opportunity: How China Quietly Gains from the Iran War

President Donald J. Trump visits Zhongnanhai and Departs China – May 15th, 2026 . cc White House, modified, - https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-j-trump-visits-zhongnanhai-and-departs-china-may-15th-2026/

The Iran war is opening strategic avenues for China to strengthen its international and domestic position in a disrupted world order.

The Unfinished Family Feud: Constitutional “One China” and Cross-Strait Ambiguity

AI alteration of this image: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ma_Ying-jeou_%26_Xi_Jinping_%2822698348730%29.jpg. Generated by Google Gemini AI on May 28, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

Examining the evolution of constitutional “One China” framework, which endures because it accommodates contradictions between Beijing and Taipei without forcing either side to concede – managing tensions while never fully resolving them.

Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, Trump-Xi Summit, BRICS+ Meeting)

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Examining the latest developments in the Iran war, a conspicuously muted summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping, and growing pains in a recent BRICS+ meeting.

Five Years in the Drawer: Iran War a Laboratory for China’s Sanction Busting

cc kremlin.ru, modified, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52820

Obscured by a sea of war-related headlines, China is perfecting its domestic sanction-busting apparatus – not for the Iran war of today, but the Taiwan conflict of tomorrow.

Geopolitics Weekly (Iran War, China MANPADs, US Hormuz Blockade)

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Examining the latest developments in the US-Israel Iran war, including reports of covert Chinese arms shipments to Iran and the risks involved in President Trump’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

Allies without Assurances: Why China Remains Idle on Iran and Venezuela

The General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, and his accompanying delegation met with the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ali Khamenei, modified, cc Khamenei.ir, https://shi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afaylu:Ali_Khamenei_met_with_Xi_Jinping_in_Tehran_2016_%281%29.jpg

For China, the question is clear: Why risk confrontation to save Caracas or Tehran when its primary rival in Washington is already bleeding military resources and diplomatic capital?

US Export Controls and China’s ‘Good Enough’ AI Stack

Generated by Google Gemini AI on February 25, 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

It’s true that export controls have curbed the development of China’s domestic AI stack. But they have conversely also made it a rational inevitability, which is already evident in China’s ‘good enough’ AI stack.

No Silver Bullet: Great Power Rivalry and the Global Silver Market

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Silver has moved from the periphery to the center of critical mineral geopolitics, and the forces converging on the market could result in a permanent structural shift.

Venezuela and Iran Unrest: Implications for China’s Oil Import Economics

cc Calistemon, modified, The Crude Oil Tanker SKS Duoro at BP Oil Refinery Jetty, Kwinana, Western Australia. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Crude_Oil_Tanker_SKS_Duoro_at_BP_Oil_Refinery_Jetty,_Kwinana,_May_2023_04.jpg

A potential cut-off from Venezuelan and/or Iranian oil supply is a marginal-cost issue, not a systemic vulnerability for China’s overall energy security.

Canada’s China Catch-22: The Limits of Middle-Power Choice

cc Whitehouse.gov, modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-hosts-a-working-lunch-meeting-with-canadian-prime-minister-mark-carney/ - President Donald Trump hosts a working lunch meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney

Canada seeks trade diversification and strategic autonomy, yet every available path narrows room to maneuver elsewhere. One such paradox is the Catch-22 between bolstering trade ties with China and protecting an imperiled democracy in Taiwan.

East Asia Semiconductors Will Decide the Next US-China Arms Race

The evolution of warfare technologies driven by artificial intelligence demands a shift in NCOs’ leadership approaches. This change means developing the ability to lead teams that integrate human Soldiers and autonomous systems. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Samarion Hicks)

AI-powered military technologies can tilt the balance of power in the US-China rivalry. In this fight, victory is measured in access and supply chain resilience, and no region is more important than East Asia.

ASEAN’s 2026 Bottleneck: Policy Shocks and Power Limits

ASEAN energy industry; Generated by Google Gemini AI on January 23 2026. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The defining risk for Southeast Asia in 2026 is not simply “geopolitics.” It is policy volatility, and it is arriving in tandem with an older, less glamorous constraint: energy infrastructure.

Taiwan’s Legal Status: Three Documents, Eight Decades of Ambiguity

U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson signing the Treaty of Peace with Japan, September 8, 1951,, modified, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Treaty_of_peace_with_japan.jpg

Examining the enduring influence of the three texts that form the legal basis of Taiwan’s international position: the Cairo Declaration of 1943, the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951, and the General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971.

Narrative Tops Infrastructure in US-China Rivalry

Generated by Google Gemini AI on December 29, 2025. All flags, maps, and likenesses contained within this image are not necessarily accurate representations of reality.

The struggle between the U.S. and China reveals a central truth of modern geopolitics: influence is not just built, it’s narrated.

The Trump-Xi Summit Just Made Canada Indispensable

Presidents Trump and Xi at a 2025 APEC summit, modified, https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-participates-in-a-bilateral-meeting-with-chinese-president-xi-jinping/

The South Korea summit wasn’t just about Trump and Xi. It was about the world they’re creating and Canada’s unprecedented opportunity to shape it by being at the table with the United States, not on the menu.

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