Examining the latest developments in the Iran war, the bottom falling out of US-EU relations, and how an expanding insurgency threatens state collapse in Mali.

If the European Union is serious about its role as a global security actor, it must confront an uncomfortable reality: its current approach is not delivering results in the Sahel.

From the Sahel to Iraq, authority is produced through negotiation among distributed actors rather than imposed by centralized institutions. US diplomacy continues to ignore these sovereign ecosystems at its own peril.

The evolving dynamics of the Atlantic–Sahel corridor highlight a fundamental shift in the nature of contemporary conflict, where strategic competition unfolds across fragmented actors and environments, and where the line separating the global and local blurs.

This week we examine a suspicious Russian tanker under military escort in Libya, a brazen attack by Islamist insurgents in Niger, an Iran ‘armada’ that seems all for show, and the implications of a high-level leadership purge in China.

This week we cover the deployment of a Typhon launcher in Japan; an insurgent fuel blockade in Mali; advances in EU-India relations; and recent Russian violations of NATO airspace.

The physical "caliphate" of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria collapsed years ago, but its apparition failed to disappear, instead finding new life in local conflicts across Africa.

Since 2022, French military forces have been forced to withdraw from several ex-colonial African states, calling the concept of ‘Françafrique’ into question. But the more things change, the more they stay the same.

The Mali state’s fight against terrorism continues to be constrained by governance factors (regime rollover and illegitimacy) as well as tactical ones (conducting counterterror as opposed to counterinsurgent operations).

An effective US presence remains key for regional stability in the Sahel, and this will be achieved not by doubling down on military might, but by judiciously balancing soft power with targeted support for security initiatives.

Post-coup relations remain fraught between Niger and Benin, evident in Porto Novo’s decision to shut down a key oil pipeline and economic lifeline for Niamey.

UN Chief António Guterres recently declared Africa as the new “epicenter” of global terrorism. Recent developments across the Sahel and beyond are corroborating the view.

Wagner is stepping in to support to Niger junta just as regional support for a strategy of concerted pressure shows signs of fizzling out.

Dozens of protester deaths marks the end of a brief period of hope for democratic transition in Chad.

President Idriss Déby’s sudden death ushers in a dangerous new phase to Sahel geopolitics.

The Sahel was a standout in volatility in 2020, and the security outlook is set to worsen amid signs of a French pullout.

In the absence of a multilateral approach targeting transnational factors destabilizing the Sahel, even the best military intelligence won’t be enough to stem the tide of extremism.

Unless deep-rooted socioeconomic and security issues are addressed, Africa’s development miracle risks being derailed. Nowhere is this truer than with the G5 countries in the Sahel.

Background on the worsening clashes between Al Qaeda and Islamic State’s regional affiliates in the Sahel.

COVID-19 is upending local security dynamics in some of the most vulnerable parts of Africa.