At the dawn of 2024, UN Chief António Guterres pointed to Africa as the new “epicenter” of global terrorism. For decades, jihadist groups like Al-Qaeda and Islamic State have built local affiliates in West African countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, and in recent years have moved further East to Mozambique and South to Uganda. In areas where state actors, UN peacekeeping missions, and international coalitions now have little influence, local affiliates remain able to build on societal tensions and long-lasting conflicts to bolster their ranks.

In West Africa, the threat posed by Al Qaeda’s Sahelian branch (JNIM) and Islamic State West Africa, the local affiliates of the leading jihadist groups worldwide, shows no signs of abating. ECOWAS – a regional alliance between West African states – recorded over 1,800 terrorist attacks in the region as of August 2023, leading to over six million displaced civilians. In Burkina Faso alone, jihadist violence displaced over two million people, 10% of the country’s population. It is important to recall that while most of these militant units are composed of locals – primarily motivated by offers of a few dozen dollars per week, an automatic rifle, and a motorbike – it has been proven in recent years that experienced foreign fighters returning from wars in Libya or Syria have also been bolstering the commanding ranks.

Of course, coup contagion is a broader concern, as seen in Mali, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Niger, Guinea, and a failed attempt in Guinea Bissau. But the most prominent threat lies within borders. The weaker the state and the more porous the border, the more opportunities for terrorist groups. Indeed, it is in those cross-border zones, where public representation is virtually absent, that jihadist militants have long sought to exploit grievances between local communities and the state. In Mali, JNIM exacerbated tensions between pastoralist communities, herders, and farmers to recruit people it claimed were the target of an “ethnic war” launched by the Malian state against Muslims.