Geopolitics Weekly analyzes emerging geopolitical trends around the world, distilling the cacophony of global events into one easy reader. It lands in the inbox of Geopolitical Monitor subscribers every week.

Europe

Russian Tanker ‘Mys Zhelaniya’ Docks in Libya under Military Escort

What Happened

Satellite photos caught the 17,000 tonnage tanker ‘Mys Zhelaniya’ at dock in Tobruk, Libya, alongside an Udaloy-class destroyer from the Russian Navy. The tanker is the target of US sanctions dating back to 2024.

Why It Matters

The military escort is the revelation. For one, it implies that the boarding of the Bella 1 earlier in January is altering tactics across Russia’s ‘shadow fleet.’ Both the Bella 1 and Mys Zhelaniya are sanctioned vessels. Following the boarding of the Bella 1, an escort was attached to the Zhelaniya, suggesting that it may have been carrying something more politically sensitive than oil. The escort supports the theory that the Zhelaniya was delivering weapons to the Tobruk-based Haftar regime, a Russian ally that is all the more important now that Moscow’s military bases in Syria face an uncertain future. Ukrainian intelligence recently warned that military equipment is being transferred from Syria to Libya. We may be seeing the early signs of a Russian naval base in Libya, a natural hedge when Syria’s Tartus is no longer guaranteed.

Africa

Islamic State Claims Niger Airport Attack

What Happened

The Diori Hamani international airport in Niger’s capital Niamey came under attack on January 29. The assault lasted several hours, damaging hangars and resulting in at least 24 deaths (four soldiers, 20 attackers according to the government tally). Islamic State has since claimed responsibility.